Based on my experience with large corporate transformations, I'd be amazed if it were done that way. Usually, (simple) math isn't really that important.

not doubting your experience, what is important then, that you've seen?

Very roughly: where the future business is coming from, what the future capabilities should be, how a new organisation should look like, what change can actually be accomplished, how to manage that change, required skills & infrastructure, how to get them. Then there is a whole legal ans compliance arc somewhere.

Only when the change is small and local is it getting close to a math thing, but a large rollout of technology is a big thing already today.

The canonical example isn't forklift workers, but car recalls. If the cost of the recall is X, and the cost of settling wrongful death lawsuits over the defective part is Y. If X > Y, don't do the recall. How true that is, idk, but the cynic in me believes it.