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Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by fintechie on Sunday November 19, 2023 @04:38PM (#38338419)
Quite curious that Hungary and Slovakia, the only European countries that haven't allowed illegal immigration in, are at the bottom of that chart, while Sweden is getting rekt... food for thought.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by arp242 on Sunday November 19, 2023 @04:43PM (#38338497)
That charts paints a rather skewed picture by only focusing on firearms rather than murder overall. This is not a bad thing to highlight, but you should absolutely not confuse the two.

Looking at [1], murder rate in Slovakia is comparable, and Hungary only slightly lower. Sweden isn't even near the top murder rate in the EU, and a number of other countries which accepted a large number of refugees have lower murder rates than Sweden.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intention...

Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by Red_Leaves_Flyy on Sunday November 19, 2023 @04:59PM (#38338706)
There’s a concerning proclivity amongst xenophobes to use tortured statistics as means to unduly smear immigration. Even more concerning to see it take hold in highly upvoted comments here.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by htamas on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:06PM (#38338793)
That chart is using data from 2021, while the gang crisis in Sweden began escalating in 2022.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by zztop44 on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:17PM (#38338944)
So quite a while after the peak in immigration in the mid/late 2010s.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by searealist on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:31PM (#38339118)
Sweden murder rate over time, it trends down until the mid 2010s: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/SWE/sweden/murder-homi...
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by zztop44 on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:38PM (#38339200)
That chart shows a steady rate up to 2005, a decline from 2005-2012 and then a rise back to the previous level between 2012 and 2015, and steady at the previous level since then. The big spike in Syrian immigration started around 2015-2016. Based on these numbers, I’d say these two factors (immigration and murder) appear to be unrelated.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by searealist on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:46PM (#38339299)
You can't truly say it happened in 2012 because there is noise in the graph. Even when the long term trends are flat it goes up and down. It definitely happened _around_ the mid 2010s.

Here is Finland: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/FIN/finland/murder-hom...

And here is Norway: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/NOR/norway/murder-homi...

They do not see this rise.

Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by arp242 on Sunday November 19, 2023 @06:16PM (#38339649)
> They do not see this rise.

Finland also has a markedly higher murder rate to start with (for whatever reason), and it absolutely shows a distinct rise in the last few years – much more so than Sweden in fact.

Norway is indeed more stable. However, Norway also accepted significant number of migration. Although it's hard to tell how much exactly because of different definitions, it seems roughly half as much as Sweden (adjusted for population), which is less but not nothing.

And in a quick check Finland has seen even less migration than Norway.

So you will need to explain why Norway sees no rise in spite of migration, and Finland sees a rise in spite of less migration.

And sure, I'm willing to accept that migration is a factor in Sweden. Although I can't tell you how exactly since I'm not familiar enough with the nuances in Sweden. But this "argumentum ad charts" you're making that migration somehow automatically leads to crime is complete bollocks.

Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by zztop44 on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:54PM (#38339388)
I mean there’s just no rise at all after 2015. It just goes back to the long term average. If anything I’d be looking for what happened in 2005 to reduce the murder rate, that seems to be the real story of this graph. But realistically it’s probably all just noise.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by arp242 on Sunday November 19, 2023 @06:04PM (#38339502)
Are we looking at the same chart like? Because that chart shows it's been roughly steady since 1990, with some peaks up and some peaks down: 1991 was an outlier upwards, 2012 an outlier downwards, but overall: roughly stable. This kind of variation is to be expected since in absolute numbers it's a relatively small number of people.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by searealist on Sunday November 19, 2023 @06:07PM (#38339540)
It’s clearly falling and then rising. Compare to Finland which has a similar fall, but continues to fall instead of rise.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by arp242 on Sunday November 19, 2023 @06:20PM (#38339692)
> Compare to Finland which has a similar fall, but continues to fall instead of rise.

Just minutes ago in another comment you yourself posted a link which clearly and markedly shows that Finland has seen a marked and steep rise in the last few years: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38339299

Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by arp242 on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:58PM (#38339445)
According to [1] it hasn't changed much in 2022. 2023 isn't finished yet, so I don't know about that.

And my main point was that "gun violence" showing near zero for some countries shouldn't absolutely not be taken as "near zero crime" or "near zero homicide".

[1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/533917/sweden-number-of-...

Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by e8r8ieid on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:17PM (#38338935)
When discussing a topic like gang violence why would you focus on the general societal homicide rate unless gang homicide's execution mirrored that of the society at large? The only useful attribute of your approach seems to be that it downplays the severity of what's being measured at a glance. The ranked approach is also strange considering that the obvious point of interest for most people would be whether the gang related murder rates in the countries that accepted refugees trended upwards or downwards from their past values within those regions. Comparing countries to each other instead of comparing them against their historical selves is just sleight of hand to excuse real human suffering as "exaggerated".
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by brazzy on Monday November 20, 2023 @02:11AM (#38343766)
The problem is that "gang homicide" is not a statistic that is generally recorded, and is difficult and error prone to record.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by SenAnder on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:37PM (#38339194)
The most relevant figures would be homicide rate by perpetrator country of origin. Allegedly, 85% of shooting suspects are 1st or 2nd generation immigrants [0].

But reliable figures are hard to come by, partly because if scientists, even accidentally, find that, e.g., most rapes are committed by immigrants, they get prosecuted (eventually the charges were dropped, because they couldn't prove "bad intentions", negligence, or carelessness) [1,2,3,4].

The other reason is that, though Sweden used to collect data about criminal's ethnic background, they stopped I think in 2005 [5]. Though it seems they've resumed - in searching for sources for this post, I found https://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/2021/11/sweden-finally-publishe...

[0] https://www.thefp.com/p/two-bombings-in-one-night-thats-norm...

[1] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20961790.2020.1...

[2] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45269764

[3] https://www.opindia.com/2021/11/sweden-lund-university-resea...

[4] https://lakartidningen.se/aktuellt/nyheter/2023/06/aklagare-...

[5] https://www.thelocal.se/20180508/why-sweden-doesnt-keep-stat...

Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by searealist on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:24PM (#38339030)
Trends are what matters. Murder rates in Hungary and Slovakia have been trending down for quite some time, while Sweden's are rising.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by HHC-Hunter on Sunday November 19, 2023 @04:42PM (#38338475)
Anyone who thinks reckless immigration policies don't lead to crime may as well stick their head in sand.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by jacquesm on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:01PM (#38338735)
Anyone who thinks that births, breathing and mothers' milk don't lead to crime may as well stick their head in the sand.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by flohofwoe on Sunday November 19, 2023 @04:48PM (#38338560)
Why is Germany near the bottom of the chart then?
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by RockCoach on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:00PM (#38338716)
Sweden appears to have a gun pipeline from the Balkans, while in Germany illegal firearms aren't as prevalent (as of yet). Statistics on knife killings would paint a different picture.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by flohofwoe on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:06PM (#38338792)
To reuse the link from a sister comment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intention...

...when you sort by "Rate", Germany is at spot 161, Hungary at 164, and Sweden at 144 (and for comparison's sake and because it's kinda interesting/surprising: Russia and the US are also identical at spot 52 and 53). So even when taking knife killings into account the argument doesn't make sense, Germany is much closer (actually pretty much identical) to "poster child" Hungary than Sweden.

Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by zztop44 on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:09PM (#38338840)
That does not seem to be true. The most recent good data seems to be from 2019[0] and shows Germany with 0.34 stabbing deaths per 100k people, one of the lowest in the world, and lower than Sweden (0.35) and Hungary (0.41).

[0]https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/stabbing-...

Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by lispm on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:11PM (#38338859)
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by RockCoach on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:18PM (#38338960)
What are you trying to say?
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by lispm on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:38PM (#38339203)
Germany has basically as many privately owned guns as sweden per capita. Germany is nearer to the Balkans. It hosts a million people from a war country (Ukraine). There are lots of illegal weapons.

One important difference between Germany and Sweden: youth unemployment is much much lower in Germany.

Similar developments as in Sweden can be seen in the Netherlands, due to the drug trade.

Background to the situation in Sweden: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/27/sweden-seeks-t...

Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by injeolmi_love on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:13PM (#38338889)
Just because fascism works by its own definitions does not mean that fascism is good. Neither Hungary nor Slovakia are great places to live by most metrics, even for native born citizens.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by FirmwareBurner on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:30PM (#38339111)
How are Slovakians suffering? You're making it sound like Slovakia is Saudi Arabia or something when it's one of the safest and developed countries in the world, unless you option of Slovakia comes from the famous Bratislava scene from the movie Eurotrip.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by injeolmi_love on Sunday November 19, 2023 @08:52PM (#38341156)
Slovakia has a gdp per capita of around $21k and has stagnated with low growth since 2008. It has relatively high hdi ratings but these have also begun to decline. Both of those things are really not good for a country that hasn’t climbed out of the middle income trap yet. It’s a beautiful place, and there are certainly worse countries, but calling it one of the most developed countries is stretching the facts beyond breaking.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by FirmwareBurner on Monday November 20, 2023 @04:29AM (#38345376)
>Slovakia has a gdp per capita of around $21k and has stagnated with low growth since 2008

Firstly, which developed countries (that don't have "cheat codes") haven't stagnated GDP-wise post 2008? AFAIK, most of them.

>a country that hasn’t climbed out of the middle income trap yet

Secondly, GDP growth as a number on it's own, is pretty useless, as it's not a 1:1 representation of quality of life increase for the average citizen. GPD can grow just from some billionaires moving trillions form one to another or from extracting wealth from your country and the citizens, that doesn't necessarily mean the average citizen gets a piece of that pie or gets to see better quality public services. It's just feeds the "line goes up" crowd who see a country as a publicly listed corporation.

Thirdly, as a country, once you reach a certain level of development by plucking the lowest hanging fruits that have been tried and tested and know to work by former industrial powers, growth becomes much harder and more capital intensive, only accessible to countries that already have crazy money to spend in R&D and innovation in the newly developing high growth markets, like the US, UK, China, Netherlands, Switzerland, Scandinavia, etc.

The GDP per capita of Zimbabwe grew 3x post-2008 while Slovakia has relatively stagnated, yet I know for sure in which one I'd prefer to be born in.

>calling it one of the most developed countries is stretching the facts beyond breaking

It's one of the most developed countries in the world when you look at how bad the whole world is doing right now, not just the US, Germany, Singapore or Australia, which have their own challenges when you zoom in on them and not just glance at the "line goes up" GPD numbers.

Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by injeolmi_love on Tuesday November 21, 2023 @07:33AM (#38362768)
You’re right about cheat codes - liberal policies such as freedoms for immigrants, intellectuals, and entrepreneurs are the cheat codes that allow societies to outperform. Indeed, if you exclude all the countries that are successfully using these policies, there aren’t many outperforming Slovakia and many doing much worse. But my point stands that fascism is not good for the native population it proposes to protect, unless you believe that purity of blood/national spirit is itself a value.
Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by Dah00n on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:20PM (#38338975)
>haven't allowed illegal immigration

How do you allow something legally that is illegal? If you allow it, it is not illegal. If you don't, you haven't allowed it.

Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by manuel_w on Monday November 20, 2023 @05:10AM (#38345809)
You keep it illegal for PR purposes but force below you to bend the law to allow what's illegal.

That's supposedly what happened in Germany in Foreign minister Annalena Baerbocks office.

Basically the embassy reported that it has all reason to believe that the passport is faked. Still, Annalena Baerbocks ministry pressured them on providing the legal documents that would allow said person to seek refugee status in Germany.

Low-quality link in german language: https://www.cicero.de/aussenpolitik/visa-affare-im-auswartig...

Re:The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden by m000 on Sunday November 19, 2023 @05:29PM (#38339085)
This is xenophobic BS. Same point was recently made by many Greek far-right chaps, only to find out that the most wanted gang leader was actually Greek (read: EU passport holder). So "illegal immigration" is not the main issue here.

[1] https://greekreporter.com/2023/10/03/greek-man-gang-war-swed...