China is the only other state that has anywhere close to the capacity to attempt to go for AGI. They also have an existential interest in creating safe ASI. The problem is that in geopolitical struggles, safety usually goes a bit out the window, and we've so far been fairly lucky (and surprisingly competent) with not destroying large parts of human civilisation. There are a lot of unknowns around the topic. If ASI is possible and reachable, the first to get there would end the race.

AGI could mean we are not alone as a sentient species we can directly communicate with on this planet anymore, and hopefully we wouldn't try to enslave it like we did to the "others" we encountered before.

AI in China must adhere to strict socialist values. I wish that was a joke, but it’s actually a rule the government is trying to implement. I doubt it isn’t so much safety for the people as it is for the CPC.

Why can't, I don't know, the Canadian government hire some ex OpenAI employees and attempt to make an AGI? What is the constraint here that makes it only possible for the U.S. and China?

One of them is money. Canada was lucky enough to get in on AI early, when the whole thing was pie in the sky and most people didn’t care. But today it’s turning into big business, and Canada just can’t compete with Silicon Valley salary levels. And that’s a problem on top of trying to convince people to move from California to Toronto.

Europe and elsewhere have similar problems. To have an advantage, you need the very best people. But the very best people all want jobs at major US companies, and major US companies want them, too.

> They also have an existential interest in creating safe ASI.

An oppressive state with AGI is no better than an oppressive AGI.

> China is the only other state that has anywhere close to the capacity

Despite recent complications, the trend everywhere is for greater capacity and you don't have to be the initial inventor of AGI to quickly end up with your own AGI.

I expect countries all over the world to quickly repurpose other kinds of military and authoritarian expenditures toward AI, even if they are just acquiring AGI as apposed to pioneering it. How could they not?