I think the probability of humans eventually going extinct is 1. Avoiding it requires almost unimaginable levels of cooperation and technical advances.

Well thats not a difficult position to take. The difficult take is when the timing would be.

The sun is eventually going to explode rendering our solar system uninhabitable though that is a long time away from now and we have many other massive risks to humanity in the meantime.

The end of human civilization as we know it doesn't mean extinction. Why is extinction unavoidable?

Why does extinction matter? If we lose civilization now, we'll be stuck at pre-industrial levels possibly for geological timescales, as we've mined and burned all the high-density energy sources you can get at without already being a high-tech industrial society.

I don't think that would necessarily limit us. Windmills and water mills can be made with wood, stone, and the small quantities of iron that pre-industrial societies could produce.

Sure, but it's hard to move from that to industrial production without having a high-density energy source (like coal) available.

Entropy

> If humans go extinct it sure as hell won't be AI that does it, but rather good old human ignorance and aggression.

No reason it can't be all of those things at once.

> If humans go extinct it sure as hell won't be AI that does it, but rather good old human ignorance and aggression.

And the shift to kakistocracy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakistocracy

Haha poop government.

Why are you so sure it can't be AI? Do you think making something smarter than humans is impossible?