> It is possible the confidence will prove to be misguided

At which point your description of a lack of understanding applies, hence my comment.

That does not imply there is a lack of understanding in the moment. Understanding does not seek perfection towards future events. However, if you do not even understand what is known in the present, that is when you will start to lean on flexibility.

We can always beat a word into the shape we want it, but the phrase has a common meaning, I would suggest you use a different word.