Re:Killings in the U.S. are dropping at a historic rate
by lazyasciiart on Monday October 23, 2023 @12:21AM
(#37981583)
No. Perception tracks publicity of incidents - I know some people still warning others off a neighborhood they were mugged in 20 years ago, but they don’t mention how long ago it was when they say it’s dangerous. So for instance when a group of well off people move into a depressed neighborhood, there might be the same number of muggings, but 10 times as much talk about it because these people go to the police and write to the paper about it.
Re:Killings in the U.S. are dropping at a historic rate
by Kamq on Tuesday October 24, 2023 @09:35PM
(#38008073)
> I know some people still warning others off a neighborhood they were mugged in 20 years ago, but they don’t mention how long ago it was when they say it’s dangerous.
But, like, wouldn't a neighborhood with a lot of muggings be more likely to have more people doing that?
> So for instance when a group of well off people move into a depressed neighborhood, there might be the same number of muggings, but 10 times as much talk about it because these people go to the police and write to the paper about it.
That seems like a valid explanation for a single neighborhood that just started gentrifying, but seems unlikely to be common enough to disrupt the correlation that I'm talking about globally.
Re:Killings in the U.S. are dropping at a historic rate
by lazyasciiart on Wednesday October 25, 2023 @02:07PM
(#38016068)
Globally, probably not. In the US? Yes, I think it is common enough to be the major cause.
Wouldn't the perception track the statistics in the scenario you've lined out? More people being stabbed, for example, results in more friends and friends of friends being unwilling to take a walk in that area.
I mean, you can have an outlier, a very popular person who triggers more friends/friends of friends, but on average, it seems like perception wouldn't be the worst way to measure this under the scenario you've laid out.