> I know some people still warning others off a neighborhood they were mugged in 20 years ago, but they don’t mention how long ago it was when they say it’s dangerous.

But, like, wouldn't a neighborhood with a lot of muggings be more likely to have more people doing that?

> So for instance when a group of well off people move into a depressed neighborhood, there might be the same number of muggings, but 10 times as much talk about it because these people go to the police and write to the paper about it.

That seems like a valid explanation for a single neighborhood that just started gentrifying, but seems unlikely to be common enough to disrupt the correlation that I'm talking about globally.