AMOC wiki page.[1]

The AMOC has high "inter-annual variability", it changes a lot from year to year. Which is why they need 40 years' data to run statistical tests.

North-western Europe isn't going to switch to a frozen mode, there will be hot years and cold years. It'll be all weather, all the time.

Edit: as to where to live, I'd recommend staying in an OECD country, somewhere with a temperate maritime climate. Not at sea level, but 100 metres / 300ft up is enough. Near Vancouver or Seattle maybe.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturnin...

For slowing currents, at least in the long run, there's reasonable evidence that, in the extreme, the ocean becomes anoxic[0], stops producing oxygen and starts releasing hydrogen sulfide instead. It's happened a few times in Earth's history [0] suspected to usually be caused climate change impacting ocean circulation.

Peter Ward's Under a Green Sky does a fantastic overview of this subject, and outlines how most mass extinction events have likely been triggered by sudden changes in atmospheric CO2 through various mechanism.

0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anoxic_event

Altitude not latitude. Alaska would be a somewhat bad spot to live if AMOC slows way down. You want places where the local climate is not driven by the ocean or air currents, meaning there is very little air above them. Think Bogota, Quito, Addis Ababa etc.

> Due to its altitude, Quito receives some of the greatest solar radiation in the world, sometimes reaching a UV Index of 24 by solar noon. [0]

High altitude isn't exactly a panacea...

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quito#Climate

If you high enough you may reach the controlled environment of the ISS.

Gotta slap on more than a thick coat to go outside, and if you thought a hailstorm could get bad down here..

Every local climate is driven by air currents, by which I assume you mean jet stream changes driving pressure changes...aka cold/warm fronts. The jet stream is significantly controlled by the heights of the Alps and the Rocky mountain ranges in the northern hemisphere and the air currents are driven by the Earth's rotation. The Earth is not going to stop rotating and the mountains are not shrinking. This is why weather scientists have been consistent that noticeable changes from global warming will be more extreme weather not massive changes.

I agree the air currents matter. But at those altitudes the sun has a much larger impact than at lower ones. The models that rate places by impact consistently list high altitude cities with lower impacts.

Aren't all the oligarchs building their escape bunkers in New Zealand?

Much good it will do them, if they can't personally put food on the table...

If shit actually hit the fan, I assume they'd have to worry about insider threats from their staff.

Isn't the trick to have a dead-man switch installed in your person which blows up the compound in the event that you're killed (or die of natural causes I suppose)? I'm sure they've thought through a lot of scenarios already.

Every human built thing (and almost every built thing is human built) can be 'unbuilt' by humans, often quickly and trivially. See door locks.

The only sure way to protect yourself is to be part of a society - something our hunter gatherer forebears quickly latched onto.

Society is the first thing to break down in a disaster situation though.

Evidence?

lol probably not the most geologically safe location to build such a thing.

There's a book "How to Prepare for Climate Change: A Practical Guide to Surviving the Chaos" by David Pogue that I found had some decent information related to your questions.

I be would naïvely think to move to up north to colder places because they will get warmer and have to deal the least with climate refuges.

The equator will be death around it will be not that great, beyond that will be refuges. So Russia is looking great. There is a huge climate change boon Russia is set to receive within the next 50-100 years. Maybe Canada too and Scandinavia

Northern Michigan is projected to be the most sought after markets in the US come 2050. The jet stream is indeed moving north and the climate will become milder over time. Michigan is also surrounded by the Great Lakes which account for 20% of earth's fresh water.

> The equator will be death

Massive hyperbole. If temperatures increase 4.5 f - in South America, where most people live around the equator will be fine.

Same for Indonesia.

India's population is pretty heavily focused in the North and should will also not all overheat to death.

Don't know about Africa.

Also - moving north if you think the AOC will collapse is a losing strategy. Scandinavia will be colder than Greenland today. Europe will be colder than Canada.

I would have thought wet bulb temperatures would be the more relevant metric for when temperatures are too hot.

So there is a decent chance that my vacation house in northern Sweden will still get snow in the winter? At least there is some silver lining for me.

True. What will happen though is that these regions will suffer from stagnating (or even declining) productivity and anaemic growth. Farms will produce less so more energy will be used on fertilizers and irrigation. Everything will have to be air conditioned - more energy expenditure. At an individual level, productivity will drop off as people deal with the heat and humidity.

Personally, living in India, I’ve watched my summers become worse and worse every year. And while I have no way to measure it, my productivity keeps going down with it in the summer.

You're missing access to water, which is perhaps the biggest issue.

If the science fiction authors are to believe Russia will be a horrible place. Not only will the taiga start to burn, there will be hordes of migrants pushing North to escape the unbearable South. There are quite a few people living below Mongolia....

The American midwest is relatively safe to settle in. St. Louis, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Chicago in particular.

The Great Lakes contain a fifth of the world's surface fresh water.

The Gulf stream is about making parts of the US east coast and northern Europe warmer. If you like being warm, you can leave those areas, but it's hard to say how much colder they will be or how quickly.

For sea-level rise climate change mitigation, look at topographical maps of coastal areas. Some coastal areas have very quick climbs in elevation as you move inland. Others remain very shallow for incredible distances. The more dense an area is with wealth (think Manhattan), the more likely it is for there to be actual mitigation to sea-level rise like substantial seawalls. But the more dispersed the population and infrastructure is, the less possible that will be.

For precipitation related changes, extreme weather / natural disaster related changes, etc. we don't have much reliable modeling. But consider what the economy and demographics are like in the area you reside in, how much existing poverty or famine there is, how reliable infrastructure is, and whether your area is a net food importer or net food exporter and how much margin it has to undergo decreased agricultural productivity and still feed itself. Consider the ease or difficulty with which net-food-importer-region displaced refugees would be able to migrate to your area, as well as the size of such populations.

The Day After Tomorrow by Roland Emmerich is one of the postulated scenario. It was very entertaining though a bit over the top. Part 2 sequel is very meh.