I mean, if open military conflict starts between major powers historians will absolutely point to current events as the sizzling fuse.

But that open conflict has not started yet and current flareups may still resolve (they aren’t the first), so no not really.

It hasn’t started until it’s started.

Nah, it’s already started.

Pretty much. I see no realistic path forward that will lead to any kind of de-escalation in the world. Everyone just keeps poking the sleeping bear and adding more and more straw to the camel's back.

Who is the sleeping bear you are referring to?

I don't think they are referring to any specific country or alliance but to the catastrophic idea of a hot war between two nuclear armed countries.

It feels like we are in the Downton Abbey, where people are starting to wait for the actual war to begin.