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Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by ezekiel68 on Sunday October 01, 2023 @09:53PM (#37733078)
I was a good US citizen and used what little influence I had among my social circle to encourage others to follow the COVID protection measures. And I adore Nate Silver. So, pardon me if I confess that all I read in this article was:

Blah blah blah 'I mostly agree with ... an October 2020 anti-lockdown statement signed by a large number of scientists and medical professionals. “Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal”' blah blah.

I don't have any regrets about the position I took, since it seemed to be based on all the verified information we had at the time. YET, I hope our society will embrace the fact that we were largely wrong to prolong the lockdown measures. Humility doesn't hurt the Left either.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by pwarner on Sunday October 01, 2023 @10:31PM (#37733302)
Almost everyone was pretty wrong about COVID, at least at some points in time. But it's very rare for anyone to admit it. I'll admit I was wrong, between sanitizing my hands when it was really in the air, to assuming the vaccines would end it. Lots of mistakes on my end!
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by lethoso on Sunday October 01, 2023 @11:02PM (#37733466)
Sanitizing your hands, that must really haunt you.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by LudwigNagasena on Monday October 02, 2023 @01:13PM (#37741255)
Pouring alcohol on your hands every day isn’t really a good habit in the long term.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by listenallyall on Sunday October 01, 2023 @11:27PM (#37733634)
This "everybody was wrong" and "whoopsie!" self-absolution is some of the ugliest and most hypocritical parts of the entire Covid phenomenon. No -- plenty of people were ardently against lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and school shutdowns, but all kinds of pundits and self-selected rule enforcers loudly lambasted and insulted them endlessly.

Many, many lives were permanently affected in multiple, very negative ways, with no chance of returning to pre-covid "normal." The resentment and frustration from individual lives being crushed while the entire ordeal seemingly aligned and advanced corporate interests, is only triggered further by the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ attitude.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by nextaccountic on Monday October 02, 2023 @12:07AM (#37733878)
In which way vaccine mandates were the wrong tool to fight Covid?

We should have higher rates of vaccination worldwide, not lower.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by nradov on Monday October 02, 2023 @09:43AM (#37737994)
I support vaccination and recommend that people follow medical guidelines. But imposing medical procedures on anyone without their informed consent is absolutely immoral. Especially since the COVID-19 vaccines do little or nothing to prevent transmission.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by MyelinatedT on Monday October 02, 2023 @07:32PM (#37745904)
It wasn’t just about preventing transmission - the vaccines dramatically reduced the rate of hospital admissions, which in theory should have allowed the health systems of the world to keep up with fewer infection control restrictions (like lockdowns, masking and social distancing).

I agree that forcing vaccines on people was, at the very least, ethically questionable. OTOH, there was a tremendous amount of misinformation and fear-mongering that would have had an outsized negative effect on the public health response, were vaccines not mandated.

There’s plenty of blame to go around.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by listenallyall on Monday October 02, 2023 @08:33PM (#37746410)
Most "misinformation" was pro-vaccine -- that vaccinated people either could not get sick or could not transmit covid or that natural immunity was inferior to vaccines or altogether irrelevant.

"A vaccinated person gets exposed to the virus, the virus does not infect them, the virus cannot then use that person to go anywhere else, it cannot use a vaccinated person as a host to go get more people." -- Rachel Maddow

"When you get vaccinated, you not only protect your own health and that of the family but also you contribute to the community health ... in other words, you become a dead end to the virus." -- Fauci

"If you have had COVID-19 before, please still get vaccinated" -- Rochelle Walensky

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by Kelkolo on Monday October 02, 2023 @06:05AM (#37736144)
You do not remember the pictures from NYC?

You believe they were not real?

Sometimes I would love to see how corona would have ripped through your country and killed even more faster without any look down...

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by umanwizard on Monday October 02, 2023 @09:15AM (#37737655)
> You believe they were not real?

This is a non-sequitur.

It’s possible to believe Covid really did kill a lot of people and simultaneously believe that the lockdowns did not prevent enough deaths to be worth their negative effects.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by Kelkolo on Monday October 02, 2023 @10:21AM (#37738504)
You can argue like this and I would say:

I think it's valid and was one of the few indications we had.

Additionally to Italy.

It also correlates with the long and huge problem of ICU beds in germany

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by orblivion on Monday October 02, 2023 @03:20PM (#37743069)
Simultaneously I wish some of the people on your side (or the side you're advocating for here, anyway) didn't spend so much energy insulting those of us who wanted to put in a good faith effort not to exacerbate a community-level problem, and actively tried to provoke our anxiety and anger. Granted, that's probably difficult when you feel you're on the defensive. But I think that defensiveness goes both ways, which may partially explain how your side was mistreated. In principle I wanted your arguments to get a fair hearing, particularly on considering the costs of the measures. What made me most defensive is when there was a valid counterpoint to my own ideas, coming from some of the most vile, sadistic people.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by listenallyall on Monday October 02, 2023 @08:16PM (#37746277)
Isn't this more of the same? Now, after the fact, claiming you wish all voices had gotten equal attention? It seems quite apparent that the government + media + corporations collaborated for 2+ years to push one singular narrative and to do as much as possible to reduce or silence anyone who questioned it or attempted to demonstrate that it wasn't entirely true.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by orblivion on Monday October 02, 2023 @11:07PM (#37747516)
To be clear I agree with your previous comment that anybody who now proclaims that they were wrong should either have been opposed to marginalizing your view in the moment, or they owe you a mea culpa. They should recognize that somebody's been out there who had the same conclusion this whole time. Depending on the specific point, I might stop short of saying they were "correct" this whole time because you can get to the same conclusion with different reasoning, and some of the reasoning I heard from your side still seems quite off to me.

As for myself though, you can see from an April 2020 comment that I'm a bit of an anomaly. Even though I felt more aligned with "the other side" I was maybe closer to the middle:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22929971

I'm pretty sure I've always, for instance, opposed tech censorship on the subject. Especially during the mid-year riots the way they demonized the anti-lockdown protests by comparison was insane and I recognized it as such then. I could pull up some old tweets if you want.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by Kelkolo on Monday October 02, 2023 @06:04AM (#37736133)
I was not wrong.

I was at home and isolating while looking at the hospital stats.

I waited for a vaccine and didn't get alpha.

When I did get COVID I already had a shot.

I was wearing an easy to wear mask and washing my hands (as I did before and still do).

The most frustrating thing to me is and was that we still live in a society were we can afford a lockdown but can't make it work.

It's the capitalism who can't handle a pandemic reasonable.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by refulgentis on Sunday October 01, 2023 @10:53PM (#37733424)
There's some people who are still manage to be newly wrong even today.

For example, asserting that the government was enforcing strict lockdown measures in October 2020, if ever. This is despite obvious evidence that people preferred staying home, such as the still historically low rate of people working from offices.

I wasn't wrong once, from the first videos from China in January 2020. it's been amusing to watch people overthink and moralize and become very rabid over side alley of side alleys of 3 simple facts a high schooler knows: "very contagious respiratory disease bad, vaxx's don't prevent infection or transmission, people like working from home"

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by dataangel on Monday October 02, 2023 @12:44AM (#37734085)
vax does prevent both, in the sense it dramatically lowers the rate. they're just not 100% effective.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by jonahhorowitz on Sunday October 01, 2023 @11:01PM (#37733463)
The measures that seem like they should have worked, but people claim they didn't are:

- masks: clearly they worked for the medical professionals that were treating patients during the first waves, as they were directly exposed and didn't get sick, why didn't they work for the population at large? Did we not wear them correctly, consistently?

- schools: It seems obvious that schools could be a huge vector of transmission, kids largely were asymptomatic and when they got sick, they would still spread it, both inside the school and to their vulnerable relatives. Were the school shutdowns a mistake? Should they have been done differently?

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by actuallyalys on Sunday October 01, 2023 @11:31PM (#37733654)
I am a little frustrated over an apparent lack of curiosity around mask effectiveness.

* If you think they're an effective measure for the public in general (which is probably closest to my position), then the variation in studies seems like it should still give you pause because it seems like the way mandates and messaging are implemented could undermine the usefulness. * If you think they're effective in individual cases when people do it diligently, it still seems like you should be worried about the possibility that a lot of people who think they're diligently and correctly masking aren't, including some medical professionals who are regularly exposed to the disease. * Honestly, even if you don't think they work at all, it still seems like learning why masks don't work would expand our knowledge of the disease.

Of course, we do know about plenty of factors that undermine mask effectiveness: people avoiding them altogether, people wearing ones that don't fit, people not covering their nose, etc. And of course researchers can skew the results with their methodological choices. But there seems to be enough variability in these studies that unknown or underappreciated factors could be significant.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by dataangel on Monday October 02, 2023 @12:42AM (#37734076)
what variability? AFAIK in controlled studies masks work (as in when you actually test things in a lab rather than looking at population statistics), are more effective when both people in the room are wearing them, we know the size of particle they filter and we know the viruses are bigger than that. there's 0 doubt at this point they do what they are supposed to do.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by Izkata on Monday October 02, 2023 @12:53AM (#37734135)
> we know the size of particle they filter and we know the viruses are bigger than that.

If we're talking cloth masks as most people are, the viruses are actually way smaller.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by sangnoir on Monday October 02, 2023 @01:15AM (#37734264)
Do viruses float freely in the air, or are they mostly in aerosolized bodily fluids when from an infected persons coughs and sneezes? Cloth masks are great at trapping those and greatly reducing the "muzzle velocity" of droplets that do escape.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by ezekiel68 on Monday October 02, 2023 @07:14AM (#37736690)
Yes, this is the key insight. The mere fact that the virons are smaller than holes in the mask means nothing. The virons aren't expelled from our mouths or noses on their own, but are attached to moisture droplets which _are_ effectively trapped by surgical (and better) masks.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by Libcat99 on Monday October 02, 2023 @04:29PM (#37743994)
During mid covid I did a demo for my kids. A sheet of paper and a spray bottle.

Test 1, spray from 2 feet. Of course the paper was soaked.

Test 2, a cloth mask placed on the paper. It gets damp, especially if left in place.

Test 3, a cloth mask over the spray bottle. The mask blocks almost all of the spray.

We did not bother with test 4 (2 masks) after the 3rd, but I think they understood the point.

We did retry 3 with a medical mask, with 0 spray through.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by actuallyalys on Monday October 02, 2023 @03:00PM (#37742803)
I'm talking about variability in the studies on population-wide masking. The consistency in lab studies is a major part of why I belive masking is an effective public health measure but would like more study on what's causing the variation in ecological studies.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by orblivion on Sunday October 01, 2023 @11:43PM (#37733719)
> schools... done differently

My attitude pretty much the whole pandemic was 80/20 rule. Everybody seemed to be fighting for the extremes which gave us less optimal results. I didn't see anybody suggesting masking kids indoors especially during deep winter, but then giving them extra time for outdoor play with no restrictions (distancing etc). The transmission outdoors might not be zero but it would be much less, so it would be a much reduced vector. That seems like a good tradeoff for their mental health. Or if not this exactly, something like this. Or what about class outdoors, or open windows and fans instead of masks. I don't recall there even being a discussion like this; granted I'm not a parent.

(caveat: This all assumes masks work and that kids are actually a big vector. I've heard contrary views on both.)

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by candiddevmike on Sunday October 01, 2023 @11:45PM (#37733732)
RE: masks, paper masks don't do shit, gators even worse. That's what 90% of the population wore. Had we enough N-95s for everyone, I think the mask effectiveness would've increased dramatically, but I doubt folks would put up with wearing one. For me, I still wear N-95s on planes and in crowded places, I understand their effectiveness and it fits my risk/reward profile.

RE: schools, they have been and continue to be a reservoir for COVID and other nasties. Even this September, like clockwork, COVID is ticking back up in the waste treatment tests. I'm still waiting for society to have a conversation about what role schools should fill and how we ensure schools operate the way that people think they should. Additionally, schools should be able to turn away students who are sick--right now it's all honor based and kids with fevers have to be accommodated.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by slv77 on Monday October 02, 2023 @01:38AM (#37734368)
N-95 masks work to keep you from catching the virus and cloth or paper masks (somewhat) prevented you from spreading the virus. Ideally everyone would have worn N-95 masks but the US had four problems:

1) The US didn’t have enough N-95 masks. In Asia where masks in public were more common people used masks from their home supply. I think some segments of the population were resentful that the US didn’t have access to the best masks and Asia did. 2) We had only a general idea of who was high risk. 3) We had only a general idea of the long term impacts of the virus. There was some initial concern that the virus could be like the Zitka virus where mortality rates dramatically increase with the second exposure. If that were the case the second waves could have killed off half the population with wide transmission. 4) Households aren’t homogeneous and it is near impossible to prevent transmission from a possibly asymptomatic child to a high risk adult when they share the same home.

Unfortunately given the lack of consistent messaging about masks in the US one segment of the populations believed that the masks were to protect themselves and the other segment believed it was to protect others. Those that were low risk and believed it was to protect themselves resented the masks and those that saw the masks as a way to protect others resented those that resented the masks. I think those polarized views still persist today.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by Libcat99 on Monday October 02, 2023 @06:04AM (#37736132)
5) A not insignificant part of the population heard and understood that masks protect others and said "why should I suffer to protect them?"

I observed this sentiment in particular about return to school, and not just about masks. A sizable portion of the population would seemingly do anything to avoid accidentally helping someone else.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by troyvit on Monday October 02, 2023 @12:29PM (#37740479)
Yeah 5) was a real eye opener for me. A lot of conservative thought revolves around the idea that government shouldn't provide services that family, faith, and friends can provide, but when it came right down to it voluntary mask wearing was out because of exactly what you said.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by garfieldnate on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:48AM (#37753477)
Related: I wasn't in the US at the time, but I think a close 6) would have to be the intense polarization and ongoing "culture war," wherein one side was already being told that something else coming out of their mouth was literally killing people, and doubting the veracity of the statement. Wearing a mask is slightly panic-inducing anyway (ever try to muzzle a dog?), and coupled with the fact that one side of the political isle took up its championing, this allowed some members of one side to wear the mask sanctimoniously and some members of the other to avoid or disbelieve any rhetoric (scientific or otherwise) promoting their use. As long as the more general lack of cooperation carries on, the US is at risk of not being able to unify over important things like public health.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by nrr on Monday October 02, 2023 @01:48AM (#37734423)
Paper masks (and, by some measure, even gaiters) are for source control, and they work just fine for that purpose if the literature is anything to go by. Every software project needs it, and our squishy bodies are decidedly not an exception.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by ben_w on Monday October 02, 2023 @05:27AM (#37735847)
> For me, I still wear N-95s on planes and in crowded places, I understand their effectiveness and it fits my risk/reward profile.

Likewise, however I should also add that in my case there's no risk component — not only because I get free FFP2 masks at my workplace, but also because it appears that one of the many ways that I'm unusual is that masks (and I mean this literally) cause me less issues than does my underwear.

Even if I wear a mask for a 31 km walk, it's the socks and underpants that pinch or restrict first, not the mask.

Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by LudwigNagasena on Monday October 02, 2023 @01:11PM (#37741193)
“People” didn’t have any consensus on whether masks work. And let’s not forget the way media and governments flip-flopped on the issue.
Re:Fine, I'll run a regression analysis. But it won't make y... by todd8 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @02:34PM (#37755790)
I personally don't know how best to interpret lots of research from the medical community. However, I do believe that the meta-analysis based Cochrane reviews[1] are the most reliable reviews of medical intervention for non-experts (and I consider even the vast majority of doctors as non-experts outside of their particular specialization). The Cochrane Collaboration isn't all knowing, but I don't know of a better alternative source of such information.

In a large meta-analysis[2] the Cochrane Collaboration did not find convincing evidence that masks work. Here is a single sentence taken from the author's conclusions:

"The pooled results of RCTs [Randomly Controlled Trials] did not show a clear reduction in respiratory viral infection with the use of medical/surgical masks."

This gives me pause; I was one of the dedicated mask wearers during the pandemic, but now I realize that we don't know that they did any good. Please note that I am saying we don't know if the masks worked; I'm not saying that the masks didn't work, just that we don't know that they did.

I've included above just a single sentence from the the Cochrane review titled Do physical measures such as hand-washing or wearing masks stop or slow down the spread of respiratory viruses?, the review is available online and is easy to read. I encourage those that think they know that masks either work or don't work to read the entire review for themselves.

[1] https://www.cochrane.org

[2] https://www.cochrane.org/CD006207/ARI_do-physical-measures-s...