Not sure if you are cherry picking that example, but I looked up that cereal in my local grocery store in a VHCOL area and it is $6.99/23oz ($0.30/oz).

You're both correct. Individual SKUs varying by $1-2 between two different metros isn't surprising or unrealistic. Stores also adjust pricing weekly, and items on offer tend to rotate as well, so comparing point-in-time prices could be volatile. None of this means the inflation didn't occur, just that one specific example may not be telling the full picture.

In my area, the Malt-O-Meal knockoff version ("Tootie Fruities") is $5.99/30oz ($0.20/oz).

I point this out because it always seems weird to me that discussing housing / utilities / healthcare / education costs somehow get boiled down to grocery store pricing disparities, when grocery stores allow you to comparison shop (and real estate / electricity / oil / etc don't).

Because this method of judging inflation by using “equivalent” substitutes completely ignores the change in quality of life.

Real inflation is what happens when my behavior doesn’t change at all, but my costs increase.

If I keep making adjustments to my behaviors then I’m just trying to counteract inflation, it doesn’t mean inflation isn’t happening.

That's actually a very fair point, thank you!

Ouch, Publix has the 18.4 oz Family sized and Kroger has a giant sized 23 oz for $7.53. I can’t see the price for Publix but they do have a buy one get one 17oz for $6.59. In my state you can buy a single bogo and get it for half price.

I’m diehard Publix but I may look elsewhere for boxed kids items.

We try to only shop BOGOs at Publix, but I was trying to pick one of my children’s favorite foods, something we always purchase, as an example.

There are many other examples though, goldfish crackers, nacho chips, tortillas, ground beef. All of it has increase between 20% and 90%.

If we only judge inflation and cost increases based off the necessities, or based off the cheapest variant of an item, then we ignore the quality of life aspect.

If you base inflations off a fixed set of items, then companies would avoid adjusting those fixed set of items to justify not increasing employee pay. Our government has already been doing this to avoid the truth of how bad inflation is by using “equivalent” substitutes for staple items.

I will point out that this example of inflation seems to be mostly just price gouging by the big brands.

I've seen a similar price increase in the branded cereals, so I am not disagreeing with you in that sense.

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However, the store brand cereals, which are cheaper, haven't really gone up at all. At this point the branded product is more than double the unit cost of the store/no-name brand version in my local stores.

This suggests to me that it's not an actual increase in the cost of producing the product. If it was driven by commodity/input/manufacturing cost prices we should be seeing price pressures coming through in the cheapest cereals.

> I will point out that this example of inflation seems to be mostly just price gouging by the big brands.

I think price gouging is a major part of all inflation we're seeing. Nothing "just" about it; it's the central problem. Corporate profits are at an all-time high, while prices rise and lots of people struggle to get by.

The only reason it's happening is because corporations think they can get away with it. There's not enough players on the market for someone to be willing to compete on price; it's all one giant cartel.

Agreed!

I believe price gouging is behind most of the inflation we’ve encountered the last couple years. Companies reduced the workforce, forced the remaining employees to maintain the same amount of production and increased prices. They then turned around and gushed to shareholders about their record profits.

> This suggests to me that it's not an actual increase in the cost of producing the product. If it was driven by commodity/input/manufacturing cost prices we should be seeing price pressures coming through in the cheapest cereals.

I don't know about cereal manufacturers specifically, but in general, it costs 25% more now compared to pre-Covid to produce food[0].

The amount Americans spend on food relative to their income has gone up in that same time period, but only from slightly under 10% to slightly under 12%[1], and is still well under historical levels as well as compared to other countries. Not bad for an economic system full of supposed "price gougers".

[0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU311311

[1]: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery...