Both classical and quantum computers (1) can not "scale" without error correction because of analog noise (although it is less crucial on the classical side), but (2) can be build with error correction codes integrated in them to overcome that noise.
Also, you do not need all-to-all connectivity between your qubits (or bits) to build a scalable quantum (or classical) computer.
Edit: To add to your FM radio metaphor: you can have way more FM radio channels if each channel is on a separate coax cable (or in physics speak, if you multiplex not only by frequency but by spacial mode). No need to have all your qubits be controlled by the same optical or microwave mode, you can have physically separate control lines for each qubit and then eliminating cross-talk is as simple as inverting an n-by-n matrix.
This is distinct from classical computers, where you can describe a bit without needing to describe the other bits in the computer. You cannot describe a qubit (in a way that's computationally useful, at least) without describing all of them.
To describe a set of classical bits completely, you need a probability distribution over the whole system (including possible classical correlations induced by the crosstalk that OP spoke about). That probability distribution is a stochastic vector that has 2^n real positive components if we have n bits.
To describe a set of qubits completely, you need at least a "quantum probability distribution", i.e. a ket that has 2^n complex components (I am skipping the discussion of density matrices).
Both the classical and quantum description of the bits requires exponentially many real numbers. This exponential behavior on its own is not enough to the explain "quantum computational advantage". The exponential behavior is well known in plenty of classical contexts (e.g. under the name "curse of dimensionality") and classically solved with Monte Carlo modeling.
Scott Aaronson's lecture notes cover that quite well.
At the end, the issue of crosstalk is modeled in a very similar way in the quantum and classical case, and if it forbids the existence of a quantum computer, it should forbid the existence of classical ones as well. In both cases it is the use of linear binary (or stabilizer) codes that solves that issue.
If I have understood your argument correctly I don’t think the conclusion follows from the premise because crosstalk is not fundamental to classical computing. By that I mean that for a given logical cpu design, crosstalk can be (and is) minimized through physical design characteristics (eg grounding, wire spacing etc) without reducing the size of computation. The same cannot afaik be said of quantum computers, where the interaction between qbits is essential to computation
Of course, qubits are drastically more difficult, but the principle is the same.
Basically what I mean is that classical computing can split things up during storage or routing to reduce coupling, but quantum can’t do this because the qbits must stay entangled to be useful
And the way we mathematically express and model classical correlations in classical error correcting codes is virtually the same as the way to model quantum correlations (entanglement) in quantum error correcting codes.
All of this with the usual disclaimer: the quantum case is much more difficult, engineeringly speaking.
For example in PCIe each lane can only cary one bit at a time in each direction. In typical consumer equipment, there are at most 16 lanes of PCIe (eg a graphics card socket) meaning there can only be at most 16 bits (2 bytes) on the wire at any given time, but the bits are sent at a very high frequency allowing for high transfer rates. This only works because taking those 256 bytes and sending them one by one (or 16 by 16) over the wire doesn't lose information.
- Both classical probabilistic bits and qubits need exponential amount of memory to write down their full state (e.g. stochastic vectors or kets). The exponential growth, on its own, is not enough to explain the conjectured additional computational power of qubits. This is discussed quite well in the Aaronson lecture notes.
- Entanglement does not have much to do with things being kept physically in contact (or proximity), just like correlation between classical bits has little to do with bits being kept in contact.
- Nothing stops you from sending/storing entangled bits one by one, completely separate from each other. If anything, the vast majority of interesting uses of entanglement very much depend on doing interesting things to spatially separate, uncoupled, disconnected, remote qubits. Sending 1000 qubits from point A to point B does not require a bus of width 1000, you can send each qubit completely separately from the rest, no matter whether they are entangled or not.
- Not even error correction requires you to work with "big" sets of qubits at the same time. In error correcting codes, the qubits are all entangled, but you still work with qubits one by one (e.g. see Shor's syndrome measurement protocol).
- I strongly believe your first sentence is too vague and/or wrong: "What makes qbits valuable is that they scale superlinearly the more of them you have entangled together". As I mentioned, the exponential growth of the "state descriptor" is there for the classical probabilistic computers, which are believed to be no more powerful than classical deterministic computers (see e.g. derandomization and expander graphs). Moreover, Holevo's theorem does basically say that you can not extract more than n bits of information from n qubits.
- Another quote: "Since they have to remain entangled to do valuable work, you can't physically separate them to prevent interference" -- yes, you can and very much do separate them in the vast majority of interesting applications of entanglement.
We do use “error correction” on storage (and do see bit errors creep into data stored on disk and in RAM over time) but not “fault tolerance” on the compute. In fact there is no such thing as fault-tolerant classical compute - the CPU only works if it “perfect” or “near perfect” (or if you had an ancillary computer that was perfect to implement the correction). Note that occasionally computers do crash due to a bit error in your CPU, or you get a “unstable” CPU that you need to replace.
(We do create fault-tolerant distributed systems, where such faults can generally be modelled and remedied as network errors, not compute errors.)
Quantum fault tolerance relies on the fact that you can do “perfect” classical computation - which I find kind of amusing!
Not that it is impossible for OP to be right, but the argument he is using used to be applied to classical computation and ultimately turned out to be wrong in that context.
https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2005/1...
What we can’t do is have a set of CPUs where roughly every 1000th instruction fails and hope that plugging together a bunch of computers together to check each other’s progress will work. The specific issue is that the checking is wrong so frequently that you can’t “win” to solve a problem involving trillions of instructions by adding more computers. The overhead of “checking the checkers” just blows up.
What’s interesting about quantum computation is this is exactly what is proposed - have qubit error rates of (I think) around 0.1% and lots of measurement, classical compute, and feedback control to keep the computation “on track”. The whole scheme relies on the error rate for all of that classical compute step to be negligible.
https://www.vmware.com/content/dam/digitalmarketing/vmware/e... (throughout)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tandem_Computers
https://www.intel.sg/content/dam/doc/product-brief/high-perf... (page 5)
More generally, nobody needs "perfect" classical computing either to make quantum computing work. Given a (quantum or classical) processor with some degree of error, the idea behind these techniques is to "boost" that into a processor with arbitrarily small error. It just turns out that with modern classical processors the error is so small that we suffer it rather than pay the cost of using these techniques.
[1] https://www.cs.ucf.edu/~dcm/Teaching/COP5611-Spring2013/Pape...
Quantum mechanics is a fickly thing. Schrödingers cat has not been observed ;-) because scaling kills the quantum mechanical properties.
My (entirely theoretical) PhD project dealt with a 2 dimensional electromagnetic cavity, with one 'perfect' mirror (100% reflecting) and one 'imperfect', say 99.999999999% reflecting.
My results were that if you started with a 'squeezed' vacuum, in just a few roundtrips, the 'squeeziness' disappears, due to the bath/loss of the non-perfect mirror. My 'gut feeling' tells me that if we have enough qbits to actually factor something more then 2x2, the loss/bath effect will delete any useful use of the quantum computer.
So I am in the 'will not happen' category. (Not in 1, not in 5, not in 30 years, not in 500 years).
This is different from classical error correction: as far as I understand Schors algorithm, there is no 'get N approximate answers, combine them, and get a better answer' part in there. While classically you could do 100 measurements and get a better approximation then with just one.
You are also somewhat wrong about the combining N approximate answers and combining them. It is correct that that the "repetition code" approach (repeat the same calculation a bunch of time and average the results) does not work for quantum computers. However there are quantum error correcting codes which do appear to work, although they require sufficiently small initial error rates (so-called thresholds) in order to help.
The same will be true of PQ signing schemes, meaning that a backdoor would be predicated on the USG believing that they have some truly remarkable NOBUS breakthrough in PQC. That feels unlikely to me; NSA interventions in cryptographic design have historically gone in the opposite direction[1].
(This is separate from the actual design question. I don't know as much about stateless PQ signing schemes, but the stateful ones are mostly "boring" hash-based cryptography that's well understood to be strong in both settings.)
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_Encryption_Standard#NSA's...
I'm not sure I'd say that given that there are some other designs and things that have gone on[1][2]. Particularly the Dual EC debacle. They have a history of helping make suspect or down right compromised crypto if they think they can get away with it. That said it does look like they avoid doing it to anything that gets USA GOV approval for use internally but it's difficult to say to what level they would actually go to for getting a backdoor out into the world that would let them look at other secrets.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_of_cryptography_from_th... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual_EC_DRBG
As for your conspiracy: The conclusion of that would be to continue using hybrid constructions.
Though, and I know crypto more than physics, I'd consider it as highly unlikely. Creating backdoors that others won't find is next to impossible. Why do I say that? Because we have some historic evidence how "NSA wants to plant a backdoor into an algorithm" works. Usually they've been discovered quickly. They can still be successful, because as we have seen with dual ec drbg, it was discovered quickly, yet nobody really cared and industry still used the algorithm.
But something like that won't happen in a transparent process. You can be sure that every expert in the field had a look at crystals-kyber. If anything about it was suspicious, we would know.
> As for your conspiracy: The conclusion of that would be to continue using hybrid constructions.
As long as ordinary crypto does not get deprecated.
Anyway, the number of responses made me curious about this new novel crystals-kyber. Do you have any recommendations on the best introductory text that explains it from the bird's view?
On that note, just this month Tutanota emailed customers that their Secure Connect product is being turned off at the end of next month in order to focus developers on quantum-secure encryption solutions.
This occurs in a time when there appear to be a stark few hosted E2EE webform-submission options that don't involve either a) bigtech or b) fly-by-night operations. Tutanota was a happy medium, and is getting out of that market, apparently.
It can make one wonder what kind of pressure might exist to turn off a quite good, working solution to an actual problem. If one didn't know better, it could seem that blaming the need for quantum is just a distraction.
The GP is not the first to make the observation in a natural line of inquiry. HN guidelines ask to assume good faith, and surely we know to try to.
Essentially the only reason anyone thinks that useful quantum computation is possible is because of things called threshold theorems, which state that as long as the noise in each qubit is less than some small but non-zero error rate you can add more qubits and use quantum error correction to make your computation arbitrarily precise. In other words as long as you're below the threshold rate quantum computers scale well.
Of course those threshold rates are very very small, and creating significiant numbers of qubits which are below the threshold rates is incredibly difficult, but theoretically it works.
Last I heard, getting below that threshold was going to take one or two orders of magnitude of noise improvement. That seems unlikely.
Say you were at a VC presentation and the company said that they had this really great system and the only thing stopping their immense success was the requirement to reduce the noise by an order or two of magnitude. Oh, and by the way, we already have the system very close to absolute zero. So you ask them what they are planning to do and they tell you that they don't have the faintest idea. Noise is always the ultimate limit on the information that can be obtained from a system. The most reasonable interpretation of the situation is that a technology doesn't exist and that there is no reason to think it would ever exist.
But when it comes to quantum computers the optimism is boundless. I am not sure why.
I mean, i know its different context, but in general, a 1-2 magnitude improvement in hardware capability does not sound crazy on its face for most of the computer industry. Most computer hardware has improved by that much over very short time periods historically.
I think part of the reason for optimism is that there are a lot of different ways to make a quantum computer. Ion traps, linear optics, resonant superconducting circuits, topological quantum computing (if anyone ever actually discovers an anyon) and many more.
Different groups are working on wildly different directions right now, i.e. Google and IBM are doing superconducting stuff, microsoft loves topological stuff, researchers at various places are doing trapped ions and at least one company (psi-quantum) is working on linear optics.
It certainly wouldn't be surprising if several of these approaches fail to work, but the hope is that they don't all fail.
To your point about PQC being used exclusively, post-quantum encryption methods are designed to be resistant to both quantum and classical attacks. That is one of the key stated goals of the NIST post-quantum cryptography program.
The McEliece cryptosystem[1] is one of finalists in the PQC competition and it's also quite old - developed in 1978. It didn't face as much scrutiny as RSA or ECC due to its large key sizes which resulted in nonexistent adoption.
My understanding is that all the other PQC candidates including Kyber are much newer and far less studied.
Seems weird to be assuming what's possible based on current technical obstruction. If you trace CPUs development, or many other technologies, many people with deep technical knowledge were certain about some thresholds which we have long passed. This bias even had some name which I forgot.
For example I accept that faster than light travel and inertialess propulsion are both impossible. If either of these things were shown to be possible, it would mean that there are huge errors or oversights in the most well established areas of physics.
I also accept the conditional impossibility of things that are just provably beyond our current ability for fundamental reasons, like a Dyson sphere. I don't know of any physics that says you could not build one, but for us it'd be like dust mites building the international space station.
For everything else I leave the door open. People have historically underestimated creativity.
For the first types of things, taking preparatory steps would be irrational. We don't need to plan for the arrival of FTL travel because we have no reason to think it will ever arrive.
For the latter types of things, preparing does make some sense as long as it's not unreasonably expensive. We do have reason to believe that a large quantum computer might be possible, so mucking around with a bit of code to defend our security against a surprise seems rational.
Are you suggesting that limiting interference will be a practical dead end that is prevents advancement?
Either way that would be a pretty significant claim. There are lots of research directions being pursued and plenty of smart people think it’s worth trying.
This is a hunch I have. Regarding the "plenty of smart people think it’s worth trying", I can only provide an analogy of the 15-14th puzzle known as the Boss puzzle at that time, for which a substantial prize was promised for the first one who could solve it. A lesser-known proof that it is impossible came to surface decades later. There is a lot of inertia in academia along those lines, where grants depend on your ability to make a convincing argument that your path will solve the problem. This sets up PhDs to know only to advance but not to question as the latter does not give the prize.
Of course it happens the other way around also - things are thought not to be possible and later realized through some unexpected result or insight.
But I wouldn’t guess that’s as common or as systemic.
My understanding of the more popular superconducting types is that a bit of superconductor is connected up to a junction that allows quantum tunneling of electron pairs. The number of electron pairs that tunnel through the junction determines the state and the state is read out by an exotic electrometer.
As for how the chip itself is made, as far as I know it's a relative standard lithography process except with added superconducting layers.
"As such, as quantum technology advances, there is the potential for future quantum computers to have a significant impact on current cryptographic systems. Forecasting the future is difficult, but the general consensus is that such computers might arrive some time in the 2030s, or might not arrive until 2050 or later." quoted from:
https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/draft-ietf-pquip-pqc-engine...
Under the constraints of us correctly modelling the math of QC. Isn't it possible that we have gaps between our models of QC and how it works in reality that could make it such that these algorithms can't actually offer any speedup over classical approaches in the real world? Or similarly, even if they do work, maybe it's just impossible to build a computer with sufficiently many qubits to outperform classical approaches. Anyway, massive gap between theory and practice with no indication we're bridging it in meaningful ways.
You're right.
Those questioning are legit, and we don't know.
It could even turn that the post quantum procedures we chose in our times produces messages quickly breakable by classical computers. And that eventually one day, someone discovers it while trying to solve another problem and decides to warn everyone the right way (yay).
In such unpropitious (but, we still don't know) scenario, how cute we'll be if all that attempt for protecting us from the future were sincere.
If BQP=BPP or if BQP did not accurately model a quantum computer, i think that would be a much more interesting result than an actual working quantum computer. It would be world shattering.
There’s plenty of math that exists purely in the virtual real with no connection to physical reality. Math is a language to describe any possible universe. That doesn’t mean anything we say in it necessarily applies to our universe.
I would consider that world shattering. It would suggest significant flaws in our understanding of the universe which would be very exciting.
Honestly i can't think of a more earth shattering discovery. It would be on par with aliens landing and saying we come in peace.
> There’s plenty of math that exists purely in the virtual real with no connection to physical reality.
Obviously.
The earth shattering part is if quantum physics goes from an accurate description of most of the universe to one that isn't.
What you are basically saying is any theory could be wrong. Well duh, but that describes literally all earth shattering scientific discoveries.
As for QC, we don't seem to be running into any limits yet. It may well be that any limits are well above useful amount of qbits.
While I appreciate and respect the useful criticism, I would be careful with this kind of content:
Regardless wether you read this before or authored it, if you're right then go ahead and show to the world how we're wrong, if you're wrong you're helping quantum attackers.
It's similar to how FM radio works: there's a main frequency and several sidebands. When you adjust the tuner to pick up a station, you're essentially "interacting" with the corresponding station. But if there are too many stations, you may no longer be able to hear the music, and as a result, there would be only a static noise present.
This leads me to a somewhat cynical conspiracy. Imagine the moment when a curios government agency realises that building a quantum computer for this purpose is a futile endeavor. Instead of admitting this, they could perpetuate the idea that its construction is just around the corner. Then, act as a wolf in sheep’s skin and introduce everyone to quantum-resistant solutions, which are unfortunate to have secret hidden backdoors by having done more advanced research on them. Has anyone thought about this?