this is a big one. there is a surgery i'll need within 10 years that i can't access in north america. i could definitely give up flight for play, probably for work, not for health

What if it was replaced by boat travel?

You could take a boat. It takes longer but you said it's not an emergency.

yeah i'd love if ocean liners were a thing again. afaik there's only one, and it's a ritzy and touristy affair

Ships are worse than planes.

https://theicct.org/marine-cruising-flying-may22/

in this theoretical world without commodity air travel, we'd have ocean liners fit for purpose. right now the only one i know of is effectively a cruise ship payload stuffed into an ocean liner hull. based on the numbers for cargo favoring sea over air, it seems reasonable that liners _could_ be more efficient than flight

The huge amount of time saved with plane vs boat makes the former the superior option. There's no way a ton of CO2 is worth the comparative QALY loss you get from five days in a boat compared to the other things you could be doing with that time (if you're on a properly efficient liner rather than a super inefficient modern luxury cruise liner). Even the extreme upper end of CO2 externalities don't go above $1000/ton with most reasonable estimates below $100/ton.

I took my first plane at 28 or so. Before it was just too expensive.

I survived, and traveled to many, many countries without it. ( car, buses )

Now, I live between two continents. Take plane at least once a year or every other one.

I would still be in favor of plane restriction.

It will happen anyway: but by prices purely and the most affluent of us will be the less impacted.

There is no need for it to happen. This weird idea that getting poorer will ensure the long-term survival of humans is in error.

Don’t you think oil will keep getting more expensive?

That what I had in mind. It seems more and more costly to extract it.

Oil will eventually be very cheap because demand will be a lot less than it is now.

I never heard that projection before. Because demands will plumet?

Then It might just be not cost effective at all to go dig deeper or use more complex process to get it.

How does that works with current recent trends? Globally we consumed more oil in 2023 than 2022 for instance.

If demand plumet somehow … can we still support a extraction industry ? Recently ( pre 2019 ) shale gaz was worth it because of high prices… then it switched again to lower price and extracting it made little sense ( till next time )

Once oil is used only marginally for fuel and heating, the demand will be a lot less (minus 80% or thereabouts) and going after difficult to extract sources might indeed not be economical but also not needed to satisfy demand (unless this happens very very late).

During the transition there could be cost spikes at demand levels that are awkward to fill without expensive resources, though.

Motor véhicule is 50% and aviation 5%, idk about heating.

So we assume that we replace all explosion engine by EV. Correct?

Mostly replace, yes, there is also electricity generation via oil to be replaced.

And we talking about individual cars & trucks. Correct ? Not mass transportation. Can we build that much batteries, lithium wise ?

Everything (with perhaps a few exceptions like aviation that might use fossil fuels longer). Also, don't think it will all be batteries (and then all lithium), as there are other ways to store electricity, too.