Re:TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months
by jrk on Friday September 08, 2023 @10:02AM
(#37433618)
Note that the shortage now is different than the past few years: it is not in fabricating any of the primary chips, it is entirely attributed to insufficient capacity in TSMC’s CoWoS packaging. This is only used for the highest-end accelerator products that use HBM (and a few other things that use full silicon interposers like Apple’s M-Ultras), they are scaling capacity, and there are increasing numbers of alternatives from other packaging vendors that chip designers could use if they had known TSMC’s packaging would be a bottleneck. Demand spiked a lot all of a sudden, and it just takes time to build factories – there are no obvious constraints.
[ Parent
| on HN ]
Re:TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months
by tiahura on Friday September 08, 2023 @10:25AM
(#37433914)
How long until the ChiComs can produce H100s?
Re:TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months
by slaw on Friday September 08, 2023 @10:33AM
(#37434004)
From 10 to 30 years. They need to clone ASML.
Re:TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months
by swamp40 on Friday September 08, 2023 @10:49AM
(#37434211)
Very doubtful. They are already at 7nm.
I'll bet 3 years. Using mostly stolen IP, because they aren't allowed to buy it.
Re:TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months
by dkersten on Friday September 08, 2023 @10:53AM
(#37434275)
> They are already at 7nm.
Given that the nanometer rating is purely marketing/branding and doesn’t translate to actual sizes of anything nor translate between manufacturers, this really doesn’t mean anything.
Re:TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months
by slaw on Friday September 08, 2023 @12:00PM
(#37435366)
Chinese 7nm is on regular ultra violet 193nm lithography, anything lower needs ASML or clone and it's 13.5nm lithography. ASML and it's suppliers were working on 13.5nm lithography for 20 years.
Re:TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months
by dangerwill on Friday September 08, 2023 @11:34AM
(#37434935)
"ChiComs", seriously? This isn't infowars
Re:TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months
by uaeu321321 on Friday September 08, 2023 @11:37AM
(#37434987)
What's ChiComs?
Re:TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months
by Vecr on Friday September 08, 2023 @12:37PM
(#37435904)
Chinese Communists, i.e. "Red Chinese". The people in control of the mainland after the nationalists got kicked out to Taiwan.
Re:TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months
by foobiekr on Friday September 08, 2023 @01:24PM
(#37436561)
Exactly. This is a different stage of the pipeline.
I can't wait for copackaged optics, which will have a very similar manufacturing pipeline issue, to turn the NPU manufacturing pipelines into hell, that's surely coming and will stall performance networking for a solid year or two if CPO takes off.