A common retort to this is that companies also exist to compete (and thus make a profit), so those that use AI to augment their staff rather than replace them will be at an advantage.

Honestly, I can see it, but there are definitely SOME jobs at risk, and it will almost certainly reduce hiring in junior positions.

I am a manager in a dev team. I have a small team and too many plates spinning, and I’ve been crying out for more hires for years.

I moved to using AI a lot more. ChatGPT and Copilot for general dev stuff, and I’m experimenting with local llama-based models too. It’s not that Im getting these things to fill any one role, but to reduce the burden on the roles we have. Honestly, as things stand, I’m not crying out for more hires any more.

I'm all for making us all more efficient, but not at the cost of creating new data monopolies, if possible. The price is very high, even though it's not immediately obvious.

We already have enormous concentration of data in a few places and it's only getting worse. Centralization is efficiency, but the benefits of that get skimmed disproportionally, to the detriment of what allowed these systems to emerge in the first place: our society.

Few new hires across the board will mean fewer juniors will get their foot in the door and get enough experience to become seniors. All good for those already well up the ladder, but for those below it feels like the ladder has been pulled up out of their reach

An LLM that’s good enough to replace a junior dev is also good enough to train someone to be as competent as a junior dev. Even better, competent programmers and technically minded entrepreneurs can now afford to “hire” junior dev level LLMs to help them complete their projects and achieve their goals. Further, it isn’t limited to programming but also encompasses every other job that can be done through writing. Every inch of ladder that is lost in corporate employment is paid back in feet of self employment.

While you're experimenting, worth checking out https://gradient.ai/ -- they're basically the OpenAI API but with llama2

> technology should empower users (for real, by giving them more control) not increase power imbalances

Technology should make life easier.

Automation is good.

> Technology should make life easier.

A totalitarian state can make your life very comfortable with technology. Wanna trade for freedom?

Automation is the best, if the majority can benefit from it.

I said nothing to support totalitarianism.

Laughable, given my political beliefs

I guess life is easy if you have no job but up until your food runs out.

Absolutely right. We like to focus on how GenAI impacts developers here, for obvious reasons. I don't really see developers being impacted in the near-term, but the reality is that there are a lot of jobs that absolutely can go away soon, if we choose to go down that path. I wish we'd talk about those jobs more.

OpenAI loves to talk about a utopia where no one has to work and everyone is paid in Worldcoin (which of course Altman will make a handsome profit off of), but does anyone actually think that GPT-X is leading to this? Some of our most vulnerable members of society will soon find themselves without work, and no easy way to get new work. We don't need to wonder how we as a society will take care of them - all historic evidence points to us doing absolutely nothing.