Re:Wealthy People Are Getting Full-Body Scans. Early Detecti...
by foundart on Friday August 25, 2023 @08:40PM
(#37268792)
The Bayesian Base Rate fallacy is the key here.
"Suppose that at your regular physical exam you test positive for Disease X.
Although Disease X has only mild symptoms, you are concerned and ask your doctor about the accuracy of the test. It turns out that the test is 95% accurate. It would appear that the probability that you have Disease X is therefore 0.95. However, the situation is not that simple."
"Suppose that at your regular physical exam you test positive for Disease X. Although Disease X has only mild symptoms, you are concerned and ask your doctor about the accuracy of the test. It turns out that the test is 95% accurate. It would appear that the probability that you have Disease X is therefore 0.95. However, the situation is not that simple."
For the exciting conclusion to this story, please see https://stats.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Introductory_Statis...