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Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by ggreer on Thursday August 24, 2023 @11:55AM (#37250385)
The problem with sensor fusion is what do you do when the sensors disagree? You have to decide which sensor to trust. But LiDAR is subject to interference, and it can’t see lane markings, traffic lights, speed limit signs, or emergency vehicle lights. If you ignored camera data and just relied on LiDAR, you wouldn’t be able to drive safely for very long. If you choose to ignore the LiDAR, then the sensor fusion is just adding noise to your camera vision model of the world.

If you somehow do sensor fusion perfectly and the models never disagree, then why even have the LiDAR? At that point you’ve solved vision using cameras.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by progbits on Thursday August 24, 2023 @12:41PM (#37251099)
I keep hearing this argument which makes no sense. I guess it comes from Tesla marketing because they keep repeating that and it rubs off?

On technical level two sensors are clearly better than one even if you just pick one in case of disagreement, but as others have said Kalman filters and other more advanced techniques exist. There is a reason airplanes or spacecraft have multiple redundant sensors like this for decades.

The argument only makes sense if you want to save money, but then say you are being cheap up front.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by mrguyorama on Thursday August 24, 2023 @01:25PM (#37251850)
It's literally not even how "Sensor fusion" works, even in the most trivial example. As long as most errors are independent per sensor, you can combine them for a more confident result.

It is indeed Tesla marketing that posits otherwise, which is wrong, and Tesla fans eat it up.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by dagmx on Thursday August 24, 2023 @05:00PM (#37254486)
Yeah the “disagreement between sensors” is largely overblown by Tesla when they were trying to rationalize cutting parts.

Somehow everyone else has figured it out, and even Tesla knows how to do it and have done it for years.

It’s pure bunk that’s used to cover for other decisions and now gets parroted around

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by yreg on Thursday August 24, 2023 @07:18PM (#37255795)
I could believe that for radar (and lidar) but not for ultra sonic sensors which cost close to 0.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by dagmx on Friday August 25, 2023 @02:59AM (#37258915)
I mean, this is the car company that decided to skip rain sensors for cost reasons.

I own a Tesla but I also acknowledge that Elon will claw every last dollar he can to increase margins even by a few cents.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by vasilipupkin on Thursday August 24, 2023 @05:26PM (#37254755)
the issue is, more of these sensors costs a lot of money, so can you get to the point that it's a business and not a science experiment if each vehicle costs a massive amount? if you can get away with some sensors and not others, you have lower costs. Of course, if cost is not a factor, more sensors is better.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by saurik on Thursday August 24, 2023 @05:39PM (#37254893)
"The argument only makes sense if you want to save money, but then say you are being cheap up front."
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by vasilipupkin on Thursday August 24, 2023 @06:08PM (#37255215)
well, you aren't being cheap. If you can get to where you want to go without lidar, why would you want to spend more money on lidar. If you can't it's a different matter.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by saurik on Saturday August 26, 2023 @04:26AM (#37270816)
Great. The point was if they want to say that, they can say that, and the people in this thread (including me) would sigh with acceptance; but, instead, they make the argument that it is somehow better NOT to have the lidar, as they supposedly are now (as opposed to a while back) claiming that it is so difficult to "fuse" the knowledge of the various sensors that you are better off picking only one.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by vasilipupkin on Monday August 28, 2023 @09:20AM (#37293512)
sure, but I think Musk has said it multiple times as well.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by yreg on Thursday August 24, 2023 @07:23PM (#37255843)
Karpathy explains the reasoning on Lex's podcast[1]. This was after he left Tesla, but of course he's hardly impartial.

[1] https://youtu.be/cdiD-9MMpb0?feature=shared&t=5279

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by wilg on Thursday August 24, 2023 @08:11PM (#37256198)
> On technical level two sensors are clearly better than one even if you just pick one in case of disagreement

Can you explain this? If you always pick the same one in case of disagreement, what is the purpose of the other sensor? You're not getting any additional information when they agree.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by bafe on Thursday August 24, 2023 @12:30PM (#37250902)
The idea of sensor fusion is to have some kind of error model for all sensors (and frequently for navigation also a dynamic model of the vehicle) so that you can weigh the various sensor differently based on the uncertainty. The most primitive incarnation of this would be a simple linear Kalman Filter, but you can use similar concepts with more complex non-linear observation and dynamic models
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by nihzm on Thursday August 24, 2023 @02:24PM (#37252694)
Expanding a bit for those who don't know how a Kalman filters (or any Bayesian recursive estimator for that matter) work here's the essential idea.

Each sensor is given an uncertainty model, that is for example a stochastic model by adding e.g. Gaussian noise to the "true" value it is measuring. Further, you have another model that describes the dynamics, e.g. equations from physics can tell you where the car will go if you know the current speed, position, etc..

1. The kalman filter computes a probabilistic prediction of what it thinks is happening by using the dynamics model. That is, based on what it knows so far, where will the car (probably) be when the next measurement comes up?

2. When measurements from various sensors come in, the Kalman filter uses Bayes's theorem to compute a mean (posterior), in which each measurement is weighted by the probability that the measured value is correct (using the uncertainty models; "correct" here means "in agreement with the prediction"). In other words, sensor that are inaccurate (large variance) will be considered less in the computation of the mean, while more accurate sensors are given more importance.

Once the mean of the measured quantities are computed they are used again in step 1 and the whole thing is repeated. As you can see, that disagreements are justified by the inaccuracies of the sensors, and the process of performing a probabilistic weighted average solves the problem. For the Kalman filter in particular, it can be be show (mathematically proved) that this process minimizes the variance (uncertainty) of the measured quantities (which btw. is an amazing result if you think about it).

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by bafe on Thursday August 24, 2023 @02:44PM (#37252951)
Thanks for the excellent summary on the Kalman filter! I admit I was too lazy to write any details.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by sebastos on Thursday August 24, 2023 @05:23PM (#37254713)
That is the general idea, but now you've just descended to the next level of the iceberg. While it's true that sensor fusion is a Good Idea in lots of contexts, the whole paradigm rests on a fundamental assumption that you can model the problem domain. Perception pushes up against the boundaries of what Bayesian filtering can handle because even the most complex error models are hopelessly simplistic compared to the system generating your measurements. Your model would have to capture the bounds of uncertainty for what your stereo pair might say about the depth of any point in any scene it will ever see.

A simple example of why this gets complicated: if I have a point in one camera and a point in another camera and I know they correspond to the same real-world spatial point, I can calculate some distance, and the statistics of that calculation can be captured by a halfway-reasonable error model. But how did I know they corresponded to the same point in the first place? Well, because they look the same according to some image feature... or because some deep neural network told me so.. etc. There just aren't very good ways to model just how haywire ^that^ process can go. So at the end of the day, once you let this evil into your perception system, using statistics to blend your sensors together is undermined, and all of your precious covariances just turn into tuning knobs you can twiddle.

The dirty secret is that almost all robotic perception systems are hiding unprincipled, un-modelled heuristics in the data association process. This is kicked under the rug because it doesn't really fit into traditional estimation theoretic frameworks. In a lot of papers you'll see academics push it aside by just calling that the "front-end", which they brush aside as a little widget you put on the front. If you're lucky they'll do ablations across a couple different options.

Of course, this is just one level deeper down the iceberg. It goes far deeper. Even if you could model the statistics of a depth camera well, the statistics of "what are all the objects in your scene about to do" is another couple of orders of magnitude more un-modellable. Often engineers will do something like attach a "constant-velocity" model to the agents in a scene. Imagine trying to bin all of the reasons you might stop walking in a straight line into a bubble that describes how "noisy" that picture of the world is! Now you can begin to appreciate just how hopeless it is to explicitly model uncertainty in the world around us.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by joshuamorton on Thursday August 24, 2023 @06:16PM (#37255277)
You're basically describing the no-free lunch theorem, but in practice we can define fairly robust generic models for certain things, like "physics". That's why optical mice work pretty well.

You can start to add unjustified assumptions and that'll make the world model weaker, yes. But starting with pretty basic assumptions like "you can segment an object from an series of images because each solid object will move on its own trajectory", or even more basic like "objects have edges" and then a few dozen samples per second, and suddenly you have a fairly robust way to detect things.

Same for predicting where something will go. If you can estimate an objects current velocity, acceleration, and jerk with reasonable precision, you don't really need a highly predictive heuristic for the world model.

For decision making you need more robust heuristics, like "the car to my left has right of way at the stop sign", but you don't need that level of heuristic to identify that there is a car and that it isn't part of the pavement and that it is currently sitting still.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by nihzm on Thursday August 24, 2023 @06:27PM (#37255367)
Indeed, concepts that get hyped such as truly autonomous vehicles are still herculean tasks, and I am convinced that we are not going to find any theorethical way do demonstrate the safety of those technologies anytime soon (especially machine learning / deep learning).

However, you should also consider that working with heuristics is pretty much all engineers do. We ought to solve problems, even if the theory is not there yet. A great example is how we got air travel long before we had any real understanding of the fluid dynamics happening around the fuselage (as it was generally computationally intractable). So, sometimes a simple epipolar camera model with noisy clouds around the subjects is sufficiently accurate for the task. The real problem IMHO is that the degree to which these rudimentary approximations are tested for safety is not nearly enough with respect to how critical they are in the whole system.

A while ago I stumbled upon this presentation on system safety [1] which had an interesting perspective coming from the aerospace industry. In aerospace they test the shit out of every component to make sure that a failure does not cause an airplane to crash. In comparison waymo, uber and everyone else has done almost nothing in terms of testing for safety before putting out their products.

[1]: Richard Murray: "Can We Really Use Machine Learning in Safety Critical Systems?" https://youtu.be/Wi8Y---ce28?si=HsqgiLngdHojpYO9

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by yomlica8 on Thursday August 24, 2023 @12:23PM (#37250803)
Don't you just make a conservative decision in that case? My eyes and ears disagree all the time, but if one of them says danger that is the one I listen too.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by parineum on Thursday August 24, 2023 @12:43PM (#37251142)
I'm sure this example isn't new at all but it's the first time I've encountered the argument phrased this way and I find it incredibly compelling. Looks good, smells bad is another one (that probably happens more often).

It did get me thinking about different senses and how I prioritize them. Given that humans strongest sense is visual, it's interesting to me that the priorities of what to trust seem opposite of my expectations. It seems to me that visual signals are seemingly least "trusted" compared to the other senses. As if the logic goes, "my sense of smell is so bad that if it detects danger, it must be very dangerous".

Similarly, I'm sure dogs can smell rotting flesh long before meat is unsafe.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by afterburner on Thursday August 24, 2023 @04:41PM (#37254271)
Even simpler: if one sensor tells you confidently there's something in your way, and the other doesn't, assume there's something in your way.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by Sodman on Thursday August 24, 2023 @05:35PM (#37254847)
The problem in this particular case is that the sensor may be confidently telling you there's something in the way, but in reality it's just a plastic bag. Hard braking at 70mph on a highway as if you were about to hit a concrete wall is probably not a great outcome in this scenario if there's somebody behind you.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by jjk166 on Thursday August 24, 2023 @06:27PM (#37255360)
If your sensor is confidently telling you that a plastic bag is a concrete wall, maybe you shouldn't be using that sensor to begin with.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by wolrah on Thursday August 24, 2023 @04:45PM (#37254299)
> Don't you just make a conservative decision in that case? My eyes and ears disagree all the time, but if one of them says danger that is the one I listen too.

In the context of vehicular autonomy it's more complicated than that because for example a radar sensor picking up an overhead sign or a truck parked on the shoulder as if it's an obstruction on the road is something you want to ignore when you're going 80 MPH on the highway rather than slamming on the brakes.

When you're the only vehicle on the road, stopping if anything goes wrong is always the safest idea. When you're one of hundreds of vehicles in a high speed flow of traffic stopping would put you and everyone else on the road at significantly greater risk.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by nomel on Thursday August 24, 2023 @12:10PM (#37250606)
LiDAR easily passes the “featureless white wall” test. That’s why I’ll be waiting.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by CamperBob2 on Thursday August 24, 2023 @12:25PM (#37250823)
You remove one of the sensors and pretend the disagreement didn't happen?
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by bafe on Thursday August 24, 2023 @12:31PM (#37250923)
Or you give it an infinite uncertainty,in most sensor fusion algorithms it would result in zero weight given to that sensor in the fused observation
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by CamperBob2 on Thursday August 24, 2023 @12:41PM (#37251112)
And that leads to another good point: it's easier to predict which sensor is trustworthy if you have more than one type. Is it dark? Trust the lidar more. Raining? Trust the radar more. There is at least a rudimentary radar to sanity-check the optical sensors, right?

I can almost see the objection that multiple cameras are as good as one camera+lidar, but I think it's a mistake to trust any system that can't check itself for consistency across multiple bands. It doesn't take a very good radar to keep you from ramming a fire truck. In fact, whatever runs the cruise control's distance sensor should have been enough to prevent a bunch of the Tesla oopsies reported in the press. When tackling one of the hardest engineering problems faced by humankind, it seems stupid not to take advantage of all the data you can get.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by bafe on Thursday August 24, 2023 @01:01PM (#37251450)
You are right. There are several reasons for why you want to fuse (different) sensors: - reduce uncertainty - estimate biases and systematic errors. As you said, different sensors are affected by environmental conditions differently, so it's only reasonable to use all the information instead of only rely on one measurement method
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by ijustlovemath on Thursday August 24, 2023 @12:43PM (#37251129)
I think you're misunderstanding sensor fusion. Any sensor fusion worth its salt functions closer to a weighted average, but instead of linear combination, you're relying on the error model and overall system model to figure out the actual state from the variety of sensors
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by Gibbon1 on Thursday August 24, 2023 @05:13PM (#37254615)
What I think is where it probably starts working well is when you can fuse information from other cars and sensors on the road. And or bicycles and even pedestrians.

Imagine a stop light with a lidar sensor that broadcasts that information. Car ahead broadcasting that it's stopped in the fast lane.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by AlotOfReading on Thursday August 24, 2023 @07:23PM (#37255834)
Think about it from a security and distributed systems perspective. How do you establish that the sensor data is good (sensor isn't failing), the data is trustworthy (not malicious), and ensure you have it when you need it? V2V and V2I take already hard problems like self-driving and add a bunch of other hard problems on top.

They're hardly worth discussing as serious solutions today.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by oxfordmale on Thursday August 24, 2023 @12:52PM (#37251308)
Humans drive both with their eyes and ears, although Tesla marketing like to state otherwise.

We are perfectly capable combining both inputs and act accordingly. An AI system can easily learn how to combining visual and LIDAR input to make the right decision given the circumstances.In the end it is just a decision tree.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by ggreer on Thursday August 24, 2023 @01:24PM (#37251839)
Is there any situation in which drivers disregard what they see and rely on sound instead? Sound informs what we look at, but we rely entirely on sight to drive.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by LeifCarrotson on Thursday August 24, 2023 @01:42PM (#37252129)
If an inner tire on the dually truck or trailer I drive at work blows out, I may be completely unable to see anything if there's no smoke or tire debris in the mirrors. But I absolutely know what a blown tire sounds like and feels like, and will absolutely pull over and come to a stop for repairs.

Same as if I'm driving in winter and hit a patch of ice - Visually, it looks identical to the rest of the snowy, icy roads here, but I will drive if I feel and here that I'm spinning my wheels or sliding sideways.

If I smell coolant, oil, or a belt, even if my eyes tell me my gauges disagree I'll be pulling over for those issues as well.

Conversely, if I've replaced a tire and the TPMS light says the removed tire in the cargo area has low pressure (duh, that's why I changed it) but I know the spare (without a TPMS transmitter installed) is good, or otherwise know that the idiot light is a false positive, I'll trust my other senses over my eyes.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by oxfordmale on Thursday August 24, 2023 @01:43PM (#37252150)
* A car accelerating fast from your left

* Screeching breaks from the right

* Sounds of a rattling bicycle trying to undertake you

* An approaching emergency vehicle

* Other cars beeping their horn at you

Of course you will confirm such situations visually, but you definitely using hearing in addition to sight.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by bagels on Thursday August 24, 2023 @04:58PM (#37254460)
Sirens from not-yet-seen emergency vehicles is the most basic example.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by postalrat on Thursday August 24, 2023 @11:44PM (#37257778)
Not just sound but also touch and balance.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by tamimio on Friday August 25, 2023 @07:23AM (#37260449)
Disregard? Not entirely, but sometimes I will be driving my car and opening its top or window, and for few seconds I can hear that there’s another car next to me, however, it’s in my blind spot, so yeah it does assist in driving.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by adolph on Thursday August 24, 2023 @05:38PM (#37254884)
Humans also use proprioception during driving to understand changes in gross velocity and vector and hand and foot positioning.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by ralfcheung on Friday August 25, 2023 @01:57PM (#37264896)
For me, my ears response faster than my eyes in some cases. I think someone else pointed out that when there's a bicycle ringing their bells on your side, your ears will catch it first then you use your vision to confirm it.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by throwawaylinux on Thursday August 24, 2023 @05:20PM (#37254693)
> The problem with sensor fusion is what do you do when the sensors disagree?

Like one sensor says you have a bus stopped in front of you and the other says it's all clear? And your choices are full steam ahead or prepare to not ram the apparent bus?

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by i_am_jl on Thursday August 24, 2023 @05:42PM (#37254924)
>The problem with sensor fusion is what do you do when the sensors disagree? You have to decide which sensor to trust.

There are two cameras in this computer vision system. If one of them goes offline, is obscured, becomes dirty, or malfunctions you lose stereo vision and depth perception. So you'd obviously need 3+ cameras. And now we're right back at sensor fusion challenges again.

Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by callalex on Thursday August 24, 2023 @06:40PM (#37255493)
I mean this in the kindest way possible: you need to mix up your sources of information, as you have become blinded by lies from marketers and a cult of personality. Machines have been using redundant sensors since machines and sensors have existed, with great success.
Re:Camera Crushes Lidar, Claims Startup by kaba0 on Friday August 25, 2023 @09:17AM (#37261360)
Similarly to how ML vision also a black box, there is no reason why its error handling can’t also be that.

If you hear a sound but see nothing, you do become much more aware of the generic area afterwards, something like that should also be possible.