Re:Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spir...
by md_ on Thursday August 24, 2023 @03:13AM
(#37245952)
> So people continue to predict doomsday and most of the time it doesn’t happen.
Well, the same is true for any prediction of anything unlikely. People continue to predict world-changing innovations, and most of the time they are wrong. That's the reality of any low-probability/high-impact prediction, in the positive or negative direction.
As a specific case of that: most startups fail, so predicting a startup will fail is safe.
I'm pretty prone to exactly that prediction. But I like this quote from Erik Davis (https://www.google.ch/books/edition/High_Weirdness/Rcq2DwAAQ...): "In the court of the mind, skepticism makes a great grand vizier, but a lousy lord."
If you’re wrong in your predictions nobody cares because it’s better than if you’re right.
On the other hand, if you’re an optimist and you are wrong you look like an idiot and the social penalty is higher.
So people continue to predict doomsday and most of the time it doesn’t happen.