Re:Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability
by jryb on Wednesday August 16, 2023 @06:32AM
(#37145065)
> If this has happed ~33 times then one will hit us.
There would be a ~63.4% chance that at least one would hit us if this happened 33 times. To compute this, take 1-(0.97^33). But I agree with your broader intuition that these predictions must be getting inflated.
There would be a ~63.4% chance that at least one would hit us if this happened 33 times. To compute this, take 1-(0.97^33). But I agree with your broader intuition that these predictions must be getting inflated.