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Re:Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability by MauranKilom on Wednesday August 16, 2023 @02:02AM (#37143370)
This only works if there is nothing between "no impact" and "you die the same day as the impact". But we know that's not the case.
Re:Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability by noduerme on Saturday August 19, 2023 @10:42PM (#37195560)
Why "same day" and not same week or month? If it's not the same instant, then you're hypothesizing some kind of back-propagation (where alternate futures in which you die influence the likelihood of current events)[0]. Under that hypothesis, it would only matter whether some event would cause you to die sooner than you otherwise would.

[0] https://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1919

[edit] FWIW, I actually corresponded with one of the authors of this paper back in 2007, and from what I could tell, this wasn't an attempt at parody, although now it might be dismissed as one. Personally I'm not willing to declare my (non)commitment to the theory either way.