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A comment on Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability. Parent comment

Re:Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability by snewman on Tuesday August 15, 2023 @06:53PM (#37140345)
If you have very wide error bars, shouldn't your estimate of impact probability be much lower than 3%? Most trajectories within your error bars will not intersect the Earth.
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Re:Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability by jacquesm on Tuesday August 15, 2023 @07:49PM (#37140905)
The 3% is likely the median of the probability range. You need more observations (and more accurate ones to narrow it further down, but for a first estimate it will do).
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