don't know about it killing a majority of the world's population, but this isn't a black swan event; it's probablistic.

> We find that on average there is a 4% (28%) chance of at least one great (severe) storm per year and a 0.7% chance of a Carrington class storm per year... [0]

So, have we (humanity) done anything to mitigate the impact of this?

[0] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201...

I'm curious why you think it would kill most people? Are you thinking exploding batteries and wire induced fires? Societal unrest from the grid being down??

I think the explosions and fires would cause negligible deaths. The thing I’m worried about is starvation. If the grid goes down on large parts of the world for more than a few days, the cascading effect would probably mean most people just starve to death within a month. We have extremely fragile food creation and distribution systems.

Pretty much everyone would survive the immediate event (except those in a plane or on a ventilator).

The problem is the consequences of frying of the electrical grid, satellites and terrestrial telecom networks, vehicles, probably datacenters, even possibly some personal electronics like glucose pumps.

Subsistance farmers would probably be OK. But most of them also depend on external supply chains like fertilisers, clean water, etc. Nobody else is an island, and that's quote no longer just applies to social ties: we depend on a web of relationships for everything: food, fuel, everything. Most (90+%?) of the global population will starve within a few weeks, even before disease gets them.

That's why survivalists and "bunker" types always seem crazy to me: unless they're the unibomber they plan for a fixed horizon for the "bad times".

Vehicles, data centers, and electronics would be untouched. Solar storm induces currents in long conductors like electrical grid and internet cables. Internet cables being problem is a new thing; I'm sort of surprised since I would expect water and earth to protect them. The big danger is that it will destroy a lot of transformers and those are hard to replace.

My impression is that it is relatively easy to protect the electrical grid by grounding everything.

Also, Carrington event is predictable once the flare happens. The electrical grid can be shut down, and shouldn't be damaged much when shut down. Doing the cold start would be a challenge. As would be making the decision to shut down the grid.

I don't get why you think people would starve to death though. Wouldn't this be something that last like a couple of days? There might be some long tail food shortages, but I would think obviously food distribution is going to be prioritised. At the same time, if you think people starving to death is a viable issue why do you think bunker types are crazy? It seems like this is exactly the type of thing the bunk would be suited for in that you typically store a year or two worth of food in it.

If the grid goes down how long does it take to step it up again? If transformers have been destroyed? They take years to make. How can a replacement transformer be built with no power?

How will you charge your car or pump fuel into it? How will the refineries make fuel?

And as for the bunkers: if civilization is destroyed, once your supplies are exhausted you emerge to…? There aren’t any grocery stores.

Most estimates put repairing the grid if all the transformers in America blew at once at around 24 months. significantly longer than a few days. Could you survive without gas stations, cell phones, computers, grocery stores, and a freezer or fridge or oven or washer and dryer etc -- for two whole years?

WHy would we need the entire grid to be back up to not starve though. Obviously we would prioritize things and critical infrastructure would be first. What would actually be damaged though. WOuld an individual generator, batteries, actual appliances? Is it just transformers on the grid. Are the wires still good. Also would it hit the entire world, or just the side that was facing the sun at the peak or something?

a Carrington event would take roughly 2 to 3 years to get power back on assuming best case scenario.

What do you think happens when there's no electric freezers for food storage, shipment, etc. No credit or debit cards. all digital money will basically be erased or locked on a hard drive that can't be accessed until the grid goes back up.

All factories cease production, I don't think diabetics stand a chance, and many others with debilitating diseases.

Hospitals will be working without electricity, without patient records, without power saws to saw through bone more efficiently, without lights except candles, without most medicines, and without a supply chain.

Essentially what a doctor can fit in a bag and carry and has zero electric components will still be useable. So scalpels, and other surgical tools, tongue depressor, blood pressure cuff, stethoscope, etc. People who wear glasses better hope they don't need a new prescription or break their glasses as there will be no solution.

To me the scariest fact is that every frozen and refrigerated food item in the world will spoil within 3 days. The only food remaining will be things like cereal, wheat, rice, canned goods etc, of course competition to get the last of the food will make the fight over toilet paper seem like the great emu was vs WW2.

Military arsenals requiring electronic targeting may go down too, all stocks basically go to zero, instability in markets and govts will be global.

Charismatic leaders might become war lords and take over large territories that were big, strong nations before the event.

If you had no warning of the event, you wouldn't even know for a week or two what happened. you can't look it up on the Internet. there's no tv or radio for you to get updates on the situation or warnings/alarms.

I think I heard estimates that said about 2.4 billion out of 8b, will be all that remain after 3 years. In other words 2/3rds of mankind will be gone.

In the middle ages people relied on goods from nearby farmers markets or grew it themselves. There wasn't a global supply chain, so life would carry on as normal. We'd literally be sent back to the middle ages..

etc etc etc...

To me, this is the most realistic comment in this entire thread. I've thought a lot about this and it's what I've settled on, for the most part.

That we aren't trying to prevent this, in a substantial way, is shocking to me.

yeah, I've given a lot of thought to all the scenarios that could happen. It's amazing how dependent we all are on a system of jugglers basically a few balls fall and it triggers a runaway domino effect.

Btw, I really enjoyed Lucifer's Hammer (1977, Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle) as it explored the issues we are discussing. The source of that story was a meteor and not a solar flare, but the effect is the same.