A friend used to say “take your estimate, double it, and add 50%.” It’s almost weird that “3x” seems to just be the universal rule.
Re:Akin’s Laws of Spacecraft Design
by bladewolf47 on Thursday August 10, 2023 @03:02AM
(#37072905)
The later half of the rule also scales the estimate up by an order of magnitude, would imply tasks taking 30x longer. Guess that makes you quite optimal at those tasks.
That's for the cost estimate, not time.
I understood it as:
better_time = estimated_time * 3;
better_cost = estimated_cost * 10;
Re:Akin’s Laws of Spacecraft Design
by bladewolf47 on Thursday August 10, 2023 @05:53AM
(#37074016)
I missed that - this makes more sense
For what it's worth, I also missed it the first time around. It's worded a little strangely if you're going through them quickly.
I think you've misread it, though this is my first time encountering these laws so do correct me. It says to multiply the time by 3x and the costs by 10x
Maybe it should be e actually? At least I'd pattern-match e into such a relationship.
Re:Akin’s Laws of Spacecraft Design
by psadauskas on Thursday August 10, 2023 @06:02PM
(#37082345)
> Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law
Hofstadter suggested doubling the scalar and incrementing the units by one. 3 hours -> 6 days, 2 weeks -> 4 months, etc...
When you have your own kids you'll discover that the secret rule is that it takes 2 kids at least twice as long as it will take their dad (for a variety of reasons; experience, distractions, lack of focus, etc.). 3 kids even longer. A corollary is, "The more people in your group at dinner time at an event, the less likely you'll actually eat that night". ;)
I discovered this when my father would come up with some project me and my siblings had to do, such as scrape, sand, prime and paint the house (which thinking back very likely had lead paint).
It would inevitably take roughly 3 times longer than he wanted it to take. And of course being an adult he'd throw a tantrum about it.