Maybe? Really hard to say. We haven’t had any major advancements in planning, none of the current advances have done anything with memory (retrieval augmentation is a not very good hack and fine tuning doesn’t qualify for AGI), perception is getter better but still has a ways to go, we dont have any foundational multi-modal models that can extend to arbitrary new modalities like learning arbitrary new sensors, etc etc. OpenAI does little for a massage or chef robot for example.

I think everyone is fooled by Searle’s Chinese dictionary and the visual equivalents with midjourney.