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A comment on First claimed successful replication of LK-99 superconductivity (includes video). Parent comment

Re:First claimed successful replication of LK-99 superconduc... by jw1224 on Tuesday August 01, 2023 @01:26PM (#36959244)
That's what makes prediction markets work — if you (or anyone else, for that matter) feel the market has priced the expected outcome wrong, you stand to make a fortune!

Great article on the economic theories behind it here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq

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Re:First claimed successful replication of LK-99 superconduc... by myroon5 on Tuesday August 01, 2023 @03:26PM (#36961274)
Metaculus is just forecasting without any betting

Despite that Manifold market having the most traders ever on Manifold, there's still roughly only a thousand dollars to be made on it, and the winnings can only be donated. Hardly a fortune to be made on either of those sites

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