It's a lot more simple than that. You don't need to discover aliens to move the market in unexpected ways. A crop failure halfway across the world, a border skirmish between two countries, discovery of a new oil reserve, a tech company not selling as many phones as anticipated in a quarter...all have ripple effects through the economy and can screw all market projections. Stuff like this happens every month.

If you want to use math and statistics to get an edge in the market then become a quant trader. People who aren't smart enough for that but want to feel smart get into "technical analysis".