Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by ridgeguy on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @12:23PM (#36864803)

Last sentence in the Abstract:

"We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions."

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Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by aport on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @12:25PM (#36864828)

Further in the paper

"The mean of the bootstrapped estimates of the tipping time is 〈tc〉 = 2050, and the 95% confidence interval is 2025–2095."

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Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by digdugdirk on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @12:33PM (#36865017)

Whoof. Those are some spooky error bars.

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Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by mikeyouse on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @01:04PM (#36865584)

Especially since almost every "long term" problem seems to be happening in the much shorter term than was originally predicted. Not great!

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Re:Warning of forthcoming collapse of Atlantic meridional ov... by stoneman24 on Tuesday July 25, 2023 @01:24PM (#36865937)

Climate change was sometimes dismissed (or reduced) by saying that’s it an issue for our grandchildren. With those error bars (NOW to +40 years), the immediate nature of the problem and the required response should hit home. Given recent heatwaves, I think nature is starting to hit us with the clue stick. I hope the important people are listening.

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