Re:TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector
by ksec on Saturday July 22, 2023 @06:35AM
(#36825083)
>we're going to experience a significant global economic contraction soon
1. YoY 10% expected decline from the largest increase in recent history. i.e 2022 was an anomaly.
2. No it is not BULL WHIP effect. Has relatively little to do with it. The problem was with commodity chips, one should read into UMC and SMIC.
3. Nvidia, for the rest of the year is still capacity limited.
4. Samsung Foundry took some market to fill their capacity gap in other sectors. Although I doubt that is even 3% of the expected TSMC revenue decline.
5. In all likely hood it just means their Customer are reluctant to pre-book much capacity and would want the flexibility to increase order when needed. ( Usual Strategy )
6. It is likely China's volume is much worst than everyone expected.
1. YoY 10% expected decline from the largest increase in recent history. i.e 2022 was an anomaly.
2. No it is not BULL WHIP effect. Has relatively little to do with it. The problem was with commodity chips, one should read into UMC and SMIC.
3. Nvidia, for the rest of the year is still capacity limited.
4. Samsung Foundry took some market to fill their capacity gap in other sectors. Although I doubt that is even 3% of the expected TSMC revenue decline.
5. In all likely hood it just means their Customer are reluctant to pre-book much capacity and would want the flexibility to increase order when needed. ( Usual Strategy )
6. It is likely China's volume is much worst than everyone expected.