What do you think “this game’s “ chance of winning is by following the strategy vs not following the strategy?
Re:Tricking Monty Hall
by thrdbndndn on Saturday July 15, 2023 @10:38AM
(#36737197)
I don't get what you're trying to say.
The car doesn't move, but your pick moves, even in this single game.
> But you’re not improving this game’s chances.
You’re quite wrong. That is precisely what you are doing.
Unless you are arguing that you don't really have a choice because your actions are predetermined you are absolutely increasing your chances of winning this game.
Yes, the whole point is that the car doesn't move. When you initially chose, you had a 1-in-3 chance of correctly choosing the door with the car. The host is now offering you to switch over to, essentially, "all the doors you didn't choose", which means 1-(1/3). As you state, you've only got one opportunity to play, and the car itself hasn't moved, but you can switch your choice. Stick with the initial 1-in-3 chance, or go to the other side, i.e. 2-in-3 chance?
> You’re improving your average chances. But you’re not improving this game’s chances.
If the strategy won't improve your chances in any single game in a series of games - how can it improve the average chances?
You’re improving your average chances. But you’re not improving this game’s chances. If you play 10 games, your average chances matter. If you’re playing 1 game, reality was already set before you started the game. The car doesn’t move because you improved your average probability.