Grouping to trade 0-days is totally different than grouping to DDOS a website. I'm pretty sure the former won't end you up in jail, either.

But, I think the OP is right. The only successful (for lack of a better word) black hat is going to be a loner.

The most successful ones work for the feds while squirreling away the proceeds. The feds don't mind cultivating crime if it's increasing their numbers.

Actually, criminal copyright infringement is a $250k fine, 5 year felony, in the US. Pretty amazing. You are vastly more likely to be prosecuted criminally if you're part of a group, and especially if you focus on 0-days. Even more likely if you sell things, charge for advertising on your site, etc.

The DrinkOrDie people got a lot of 3-5 year sentences. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Buccaneer

Parent posts are probably talking about 0-day exploits rather than 0-day warez.

Doh, of course.

DMCA still makes some 0-day exploit research not totally safe, either. https://www.eff.org/wp/unintended-consequences-under-dmca I don't know if anyone has been successfully convicted, but a lot of prosecutions have come up, and that's enough to deter many people.

Not 0-day, but you might find it interesting:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DarkMarket

DarkMarket was an English-speaking internet cybercrime forum created by Renukanth Subramaniam in London that was shut down in 2008 after FBI agent J. Keith Mularski infiltrated it using the alias Master Splyntr, leading to more than 60 arrests worldwide. Subramaniam, who used the alias JiLsi, admitted conspiracy to defraud and was sentenced to nearly five years in prison in February 2010.

The website allowed buyers and sellers of stolen identities and credit card data to meet and conduct criminal enterprise in an entrepreneurial, peer-reviewed environment. It had 2,500 users at its peak.