Re:Apple Vision Pro Headset to Launch in US Stores by Appoin...
by p1esk on Wednesday July 12, 2023 @11:06AM
(#36695642)
Itβs interesting that you keep confusing a concept (AR/VR) and a technology (screens, bci, etc).
For the record, what I predict is:
1. In 15 years smartphones will be obsolete. The most likely technology that will replace them is retinal projection via glasses. Laptops and monitors will probably last a bit longer.
2. In 30 years, BCI will replace all other human computer interfaces, unless by that time humans will already merge with computers on a more fundamental level.
As with any examples of progress in human history things will appear to change slowly until they suddenly change very fast.
However, you are wildly overestimating how near brain-computer interfaces are if you think they will obsolete smartphones in 15 years.
My prediction then is this: screens on fixed devices (desktop, laptop, phone, tablet, probably other form factors) will remain the most common way of accessing the majority of our computer use for the next, say, 50 years. They will not be displaced by glasses-mounted displays, though "smart glasses" will become a more and more common secondary device in the coming decades, just like smartwatches. The only thing that will displace regular screens will be safe, high-bandwidth, high-fidelity brain-computer interfaces - which is where the 50 years timeline is coming from.
And I believe even 50 years is optimistic given the difficulty of making such a technology mass-market.