I get why this currently appears downvoted, but I do think this is a real factor. The camera improvements in particular drive device sales and keep people on a software upgrade treadmill whether they’d update their older devices or not.

To me the camera is probably the least important concern I have with a phone. I don't think I've used my camera yet this month. I would trade a camera for a smaller phone with better battery life.

That has reached some limits in the last few cycles, in my view. The cameras are almost all good enough for almost all users and the only place anyone cares now are the people with a grand to blow for very minor improvements, a fraction of the audience for the fraction of phone sales at the top end.

Look down market even slightly and the cameras on today's upper and middle mid-range or the those on a two or three year old hero phone poll exceptionally well with users today. Sensors, lens packs, and OIS are good enough and cheap enough for even very low light situations and everything else is software (or perhaps some new hardware as we get more ruin like "A.I." enhancements like portrait mode -- God damn if I have to see another photo with that exaggerated depth of field I'm gonna kick something, but even those effects don't need this years model as the hardware and software for that have filtered out over the last 7 years.

I think we're really at the end for the "I need (or even want) the new phone for a better camera." (note Samsung and others marketing moves to streaming and astrophotography as "normal" photos that most people care about are simply good enough.)

Perhaps something more computationally challenging like live deep fake video and things like that will drive sales going forward and that's "camera" sure (but also that AI chip) but photography, pictures, IMO, has reached a plateau and nothing exciting has happened enough yet in video to replace "outrageously better pictures" as as a that now fading upgrade cycle driver.

I think battery (and weight considerations) could be drivers in the near future. Fast charging, IMO, has been a bigger driver of revenue for phone makers than cameras for the last few years and I suspect we'll see marketing and user demand shifting to "does your phone run for a week without bending your spine" or "does your phone charge in under a minute" something like that becoming a focus in 3-5 years and cameras falling down to compete with things like cover glass which has also plateaued and mostly fallen off the users radar.

Apple's rumored battery and size bump and the EU's move to consumer replaceable batteries is a perfect storm for super fast charging, even at destructive levels, then OEM or 7-11 sales of replacement batteries. I imagine we'll also see optimizations in the rest of the hardware and software stack become a focus for that magical week of battery that's probably not a decade away.

Photography, like cover glass, is bound by some pretty daunting constraints of physics and I think we've hit "good as it's gonna get" or "good enough" or some combination of those for a while and so phone makers need something new to drive their annual or biannual upgrade cycles.

Apple hopes VR will be big and replace a lot of phone and pc use cases, perhaps the way the iPhone and iPad did so much of that 15 years ago, but I don't see that happening for another decade or three (I've used various head mounted VR kits since 1993; it's not happening any time soon.)

Android is too fragmented to say what that ecosystem is betting on over the next 5 years or so, but I'm gonna wager it's battery and screen followed by performance, camera, and then storage, durability and IP rating and all those other "a few small but big spending segments care enough to keep improving" features.

I use the camera a lot and also shoot with mirrorless full frame.

Many people who take photography seriously including many professionals always have a modern ish phone due to the camera.

Phones are invaluable, as they say the best camera is the one in your pocket at all times.

Yes, my Canon takes superior photos especially in low light, but that's for my photos I've specifically set out to catch, whereas my phone is ready and on my person all the time.

Many professionals have their phone as a primary spontaneous on, always ready camera

Also there are shots that iPhone 14 pro max is amazing at like daytime photos, their dynamic range is better than my full frame and to replicate requires a lot of work!

I always upgrade when the jump in camera ability is enough I can warrant the cost.