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A comment on Prediction: Threads will be shut down in 12 months or less.

Re:Prediction: Threads will be shut down in 12 months or less by yodsanklai on Monday July 10, 2023 @07:56AM (#36665085)
I feel Twitter lack of moderation makes it more and more hateful, reminiscent of some usenet politics groups where conversation was impossible. There's even quite a lot of porn content. I don't know why, but I receive tons of dick pics that I'm not interested in. I tried very hard to get rid of them but was unsuccessful. I can definitely see the platform becoming unusable, while users flock to a different system for a better experience.

On the other hand, it seems some groups manage to share ideas in a positive way (e.g. cancer survivors), so it all depends on the feed algorithm, maybe most users have a postive experience. Hard to say. In any case, some minor tweaking of the feed algorithm could be enough to improve the experience.

But in the end, I think it all boils to the network effect. Will enough users migrate from Twitter to Threads. My guess is not, network effect is extremely strong. At that point, even the most upset, anti-musk, users don't seem to be leaving (which I find quite ironic).

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Re:Prediction: Threads will be shut down in 12 months or less by hewlett on Monday July 10, 2023 @08:11AM (#36665212)
> My guess is not, network effect is extremely strong.

100 million users in less than a week

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Re:Prediction: Threads will be shut down in 12 months or less by J78GR_55 on Monday July 10, 2023 @08:25AM (#36665333)
This might be how they got to that number so fast: https://mastodon.social/@Some_Emo_Chick/110682943142004251
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Re:Prediction: Threads will be shut down in 12 months or less by episteme on Monday July 10, 2023 @09:12AM (#36665869)
It clearly says when you sign up that you will follow these people when they join threads. There is no evidence that these 'shadow' accounts are being included in the metrics before people sign up.
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Re:Prediction: Threads will be shut down in 12 months or less by hewlett on Monday July 10, 2023 @09:40AM (#36666273)
I also got a prompt to follow accounts that didn't exist yet. I there's no proof whether these accounts were included in usercount estimates
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Re:Prediction: Threads will be shut down in 12 months or less by ahahahahah on Monday July 10, 2023 @12:47PM (#36669015)
What a dumb conspiracy. Like they just picked what? 1 in 20 or so of their Instagram accounts to get this "shadow account"? Or could it be exactly what the app says when you encounter that, that the follow request will be sent when that user opens a threads account?
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Re:Prediction: Threads will be shut down in 12 months or less by yodsanklai on Monday July 10, 2023 @10:42AM (#36667176)
People trying Threads isn't the same things are people leaving Twitter.
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Re:Prediction: Threads will be shut down in 12 months or less by gremlinsinc on Monday July 10, 2023 @05:30PM (#36673245)
Not necessarily, I'm in both - hedging my bets. Whichever gets me better/more engagement, this is the platform I will stick with. I'm not fond of either CEO, but Elon keeps coming off more and more as a psychotic narcissist, and I find myself rooting for Threads over Twitter for that reason alone. He needs a big L to gain some humility.
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Re:Prediction: Threads will be shut down in 12 months or less by oneTbrain23 on Tuesday July 11, 2023 @08:11AM (#36679861)
There are millions of fake account over at FB. There are multiple duolicates of accounts too. I personally had near 20+ FB accounts. Believing Threads having 100mil in such a short time especially back by a company that famously need billions of accounts to be valued in billions, is like believing Libra will be the next bitcoin.
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Re:Prediction: Threads will be shut down in 12 months or less by hackerlight on Monday July 10, 2023 @05:53PM (#36673469)
One comment about network effects. In addition to raw numbers transferring over, it also matters a lot who those people are. In particular it'll come down to wherever the cultural kingmakers decide to stay. If Twitter's brand becomes too toxic, and you see celebrities moving over in droves because of that, everyone else will follow.
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