> Is it not more likely that most historically successful people just stumbled on the promising gaps almost by accident?
Yes and no. Yes, they stumbled on a promising gap by accident. No, it's not pure chance. Their odds go way up by being out there stumbling around, looking at things they find interesting.
What's the point of motivation of you don't believe what you do matters? The antitode to these kind of arguments is always to bring it to a closer level. Can you control how clean your house is with work? Would hard work help you tend to a farm better? Where does it stop helping you?
to some degree, but it's not like you can luck your way into writing an app by slapping the keyboard. The degree of success might differ, but generally there's some kind of barrier of entry in terms of the work to learn the base skill needed. Right place at the right time is a thing, but plenty of people miss out because they don't even try at all
I wish some of the people I've worked with knew this
It seems obvious that someone like me, who believes this and is looking and working everywhere, will be the type of person who does the great work, rather than someone who thinks that, ah well, it's probably an accident that others found things and they didn't. Because, seriously.. The gaps are everywhere! in everything! Some of us can scarcely go a day without having an idea that seems to have huge potential and it's a question of deciding what to focus on and how far to go. The problem is never thinking of something that could be great work to do... it's picking which one.
So basically, strong disagree, it's no accident at all.
That said the main reason everyone is writing off all the potential is, yes, lack of ambition, lack of curiosity, lack of perseverance, etc. Can those habits be unlearned? Dunno. Probably. I think most people are 'followers' at heart, and to imagine doing something truly novel is to imagine, ultimately, not trying to do what they're told, not trying to be safe. And the thought gives them intense anxiety so they explain a hundred reasons why they're right, why nothing can be done. Well, from my perspective that's just a matter of perspective.
Do you have any data to support that? I'd actually expect them to fully retire in their fourties or fifties, once they no longer need more money.
Pushing the argument a bit further: When you are so lucky to have what it takes to do great things, would you be able to _not_ do great things?
However, I also believe that it can be detrimental and even lead to burn-out or depression if you actually believe that putting in the work, and putting it in in a good way, will lead you to success. This seems like a recipe for disaster.
Is it not more likely that most historically successful people just stumbled on the promising gaps almost by accident? The concepts of "thrownness" and "survivorship bias" might be relevant to look up in this context. Is it possible to train curiosity, ambition, intelligence, passion, perseverance, if you did not grow up with it?