Re:The future of AI according to thousands of forecasters
by avionical on Tuesday June 27, 2023 @04:32PM
(#36498247)
Anyone can forecast, sure. But there's a large body of research on the accuracy of aggregated forecasts and on the ability of forecasters to become more accurate with practice. (Thinking here in particular of work by Mellers & Tetlock.)
Metaculus provides a transparent track record of community forecasts here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/ It's very difficult for any one person to consistently beat the community.
Re:The future of AI according to thousands of forecasters
by saulmunn on Tuesday June 27, 2023 @04:31PM
(#36498236)
this isn't quite true -- on metaculus, accounts that have a history of forecasting things well are weighted more heavily
Re:The future of AI according to thousands of forecasters
by zgluck on Tuesday June 27, 2023 @04:57PM
(#36498547)
SISO (Shit In, Shit Out) still applies. You guys need a high quality user base with domain knowledge, at least as a seed. There is no proof that you have that at the moment.
Edit:
Okay, that track record page avionical posted in a separate comment is actually a bit convincing now that I dig deeper into it. :-)
I suppose that for e.g. AI/AGI a weakness could be that the estimates for most of the users have been short term (a few years at most) but the AGI estimates are 8-17 years away. Those estimates are a lot harder to do make and hence surely a lot less accurate.
Sometimes a large polling number does not equal a more accurate answer.