If the free RHEL variants disappeared today I'd wager most of those companies would choose other distributions (Debian, Ubuntu, openSUSE, etc) or making the jump to containerisation or serverless before paying for RHEL. In the end less people would be using their kind of Enterprise Linux, which in turn will result in less conversion to the paid version of it.
Why would anyone want to convert to the paid version if their use case is covered by the free version? Out of generosity?
In HPC, it is reasonably common for people to run RHEL on the scheduler, database and login nodes (totalling maybe a dozen servers) but then use CentOS (now Rocky) for the compute nodes, which might be hundreds of nodes. Those customers simply can't justify the cost of RHEL everywhere, even with more recent changes which make it cheaper than it has been historically in this use-case.
(but I'm a complete outsider, I just share my views and I do acknowledge I may be missing something, so feel free to elaborate further)
What you may not be aware of, or have forgotten, is the free versions provided by other companies that provide package compatibility and similar support (as in updates and security fixes) that CentOS did.
Oracle Linux, Alma Linux, Rocky Linux, and Amazon Linux. Quite possibly even more.
Red Hat will have a hard time undercutting them just by reducing their pricing, which is why they're using tactics like a free number of subscriptions/licenses for small organisations and developers and trying to cut off access to the source code.
For us, this means we stop doing business with RedHat.
No, they don't. They don't need to do anything.
> But you're torching an insane amount of good will that was built up over 20 years of good and mostly selfless deeds.
Doesn't matter. That goodwill doesn't really benefit them. How many companies paid Red Hat because they liked the things they did for open-source? Realistically, very few if any.
> Continue to make it so that rebuilders like Alma or Rocky can exist as bug-for-bug by having access to the source, but reach an agreement with them not to offer or sell support.
Realistically, there are lots of companies that would pay for Red Hat but don't because they get can get it for free.