Tesla did not have 100% market share. Nissan Leaf came out before the Model S. (And if you want to count the Roadster, you should count the EV1, etc.)

But I think the point is that electric cars will take over the whole market, and so if Tesla’s US market share falls to like 20-30% from the current 60% or whatever it is but that market is 10-30 times larger, that’s a huge win.

Yes, in theory the GM's EV-1 beat them to market by a lot. But in real terms Tesla had the EV market cornered for years. The only real competition was the Leaf and Bolt, and even those were low volume vehicles. It remains to be seen if the legacy automakers can successfully ramp production this year. They have made a lot of promises, but actual deliveries are still lagging.

I legit believe that many people in these threads haven't learned that the Model Y is the best selling vehicle in North America during 2023-Q1 [1]. Not just best selling EV, or best selling crossover; best selling vehicle. It outsold the Corrola, at half the price.

This is not a situation of "oh Tesla will continue to do well, they'll sell cars" or "what's their moat? they're finished": They are #1. Dozens of competitors have hit the market over the past five years. They are outselling all of them, at substantially higher price points (fed tax credit has something to do with it versus gas cars for Q1 here, but it impacts all EVs reasonably equally).

If there's something on the horizon which will change that, I need that explained to me because I'm not seeing it. That Fords and GMs will also get supercharging? Anyone who says "the supercharger network significantly influences purchases toward Tesla" doesn't own an EV; armchair commentators. To some small degree; sure. But the biggest influence, bar none, is: "My friend has one." That's it. Few spend significant time driving a Mach-E and think "everything about this screams I need it". But that is a not a-typical experience for Tesla vehicles, because so much about it is so far ahead of traditional cars, and even modern competing EVs.

So much about it is also pretty far behind, like quality control. But that doesn't come through when you're driving a friend's perfectly functional car. And it certainly hasn't hurt Tesla up to this point.

[1] https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/26/23738581/tesla-model-y-ev...

I agree, though the data is not exactly apples-to-apples because Tesla sells fewer models (which is probably a good thing).

You said best selling in NA, but the source says best selling in the world.

In NA I believe it's F150 first and model Y second.