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Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ... by idlewords on Friday June 16, 2023 @09:01PM (#36366060)
If you dredge through enough random data, you will always a six sigma correlation (or five, or however many sigmas you want), kind of by definition. This is why experimenters like particle physicists or gravitational wave astronomers who have petabytes of raw data have to define their criteria in advance, instead of just going to town looking for patterns.

I agree with you that if this observation proves to have predictive power, then the way it was found doesn't matter. But right now we're at the less reliable "we looked at all conceivable retroactive combinations of stuff and found this pattern" stage of the process.

Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ... by magicalhippo on Friday June 16, 2023 @09:46PM (#36366359)
It wasn't entirely clear to me, but seems they've taken care of the look-elsewhere effect[1]. If so, that's at least something, no?

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Look-elsewhere_effect

Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ... by stainablesteel on Saturday June 17, 2023 @09:27AM (#36369995)
both are valid strategies, what i think is bad is when groups of people claim that broad sweeping searches are all bogus and that you must have a priori knowledge to be relevant.

there should be people dredging through petabytes of cern data like this, exploratory analysis can give you insight into things you didn't know to look for.

even if you find things that are bogus you figure out why and learn how to avoid it given the context of the data.

to say otherwise becomes a hindrance to progress. plus its not like we have any other way of predicting earthquakes, trying to read the magnetic field to predict events sounds really promising, i'd be willing to give it a shot even if it is bogus, that's just risk assessment.

Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ... by psychphysic on Saturday June 17, 2023 @12:12PM (#36371519)
The first "scientists" looked at the sky and just stared until patterns appeared.

You can't condemn scientists for looking at data. Not everything can be magicked up from first principles in a vacuum.

No scientist would claim that falsifiable hypothesis and empirical validation aren't needed. But I don't think any scientist would criticise someone for looking for patterns on a whim and pointing it out to others.

A favourite example[0].

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulam_spiral#History