Just a guess, but a hypothesis might be that people who are unable to provide food/shelter/necessities for themselves through legal channels, will be more likely to use illegal channels if an adequate welfare system is not in place.

I think this hypothesis has sociological and psychological merit, and I'm sure its been tested before, though I don't know of any studies off-hand.

Without any numbers to back it up, I can think of a couple reasons why it might. When you're poor, you feel helpless. If you don't have money to feed your family, you have to get money or goods. Taking that weight off the minds of the poor keeps them free to pursue more productive activities.

Obviously that's conjecture, and all poor people aren't criminals (and all criminals are not poor), but it's not a leap of logic to say poverty can lead normally straight people to mentally justify committing a crime. Welfare programs can and do help people get back on their feet.

That's also conjecture. Not all people on welfare programs "get back on their feet."

Well I didn't say all, and I didn't say welfare programs get people back on their feet. I said it helps people get back on their feet.

Living in Michigan, almost all of my family became unemployed as a result of the factories closing down. Some took the assistance to get retraining and find another job, and some took maintaining the assistance as their new job or as a retirement package. Some just weren't able to get back into the job market no matter how they tried. I got out of my state's "No Worker Left Behind" retraining assistance just before the new governor shut down the incredibly successful program.

It's a combination of willingness to work and ability to work. Welfare programs can do no more than take basic survival off your "worries" list.