As for linking a blog post: if it's relevant to HN, write it and submit the URL with the original title (editorialised titles in submissions is a big no-no).
About 3% of non-spam submissions hit the front page, so your odds are fairly low. Good stuff often does make it through eventually.
The FAQ describes karma: <https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html>
Both are linked at the bottom of most HN pages.
As for linking a blog post: if it's relevant to HN, write it and submit the URL with the original title (editorialised titles in submissions is a big no-no).
About 3% of non-spam submissions hit the front page, so your odds are fairly low. Good stuff often does make it through eventually.