Rumble will perish due to its controversial niche, which mind-numbingly is also its main moat

I've not come across Rumble yet, is this comparable to Twitter vs. Truth Social (minus the drama)?

It’s closer to something between YouTube and twitch; they’re trying to grow by targeting the niches kicked off of youtube and twitch

To put in perspective: there’s a ton of attorneys on there, right and left wing pundits that had their channels kicked off YouTube.

They also have UFC, sports, gaming, gun channels, etc. and that seems to be where they’re trying to grow most.

I kind of agree about the most and niche, but think you’re wrong about the conclusion.

That niche has ~50% of Americans and a large portion of the globe fine with it.

Put simply, as YouTube pushes out niches (guns, comedy, pundits, etc). They move to rumble. This increases the network effects on rumble and will help it grow rapidly. The more niches on rumble, the less of a need to go to YouTube. YouTube effectively kicked out the niches that half the country likes, so you’re going to get two networks. Rumble will let anyone profit off anything, provided it’s 1st amendment protected (supposedly, I have my doubts tbh). So it can build a bigger network.

More importantly, as I point out in the analysis, they’re well positioned as the large media outlets fade to take market share.

If people come to rumble for the pundits or Gun channels and stay for the sports, w.e. That’ll work well for them.

> supposedly, I have my doubts tbh

I do too. The same people I see pushing Rumble were the same people pushing Parler, which for all intents and purposes was a honey pot. Not to mention anything rooted in politics, regardless of side, will be endorsing the “right content” and punishing the “wrong content” in various ways.

I wouldn't be so sure, a big part of growing big as an organization is becoming extremely sensitive to the political winds, and Youtube's "content moderation" is really a function of politics in the West. Were Rumble to grow to a comparable size it too would face the same political risks and at that point it could only remain as it is if there was a sizable political force backing.

Someone already mentioned Odyssey and I too am more hopeful of that platform - a decentralized platform is the best positioned to avoid political interference and censorship.

> remain as it is if there was a sizable political force backing.

Exactly my point, they have half the support. YouTube has the other. It seems reasonable to assume a split of the networks so lots of room for rumble to grow.

Odyssey is going to be attacked by both political sides imo we have seen that already

Hardly “controversional”, considering it’s just the completely legal views that YouTube censors.

What will really kill Rumble is the fact that they aren’t a YouTube competitor, more a small island off the coast that is mainly centered on said niche and lack the means of true innovation.

Personally I find Odysee/LBRY much more interesting. Fully open source protocol, more varied creators, transparent moderation due to a public blockchain, and P2P file distribution are all incredibly enticing features to me.

Twitch is a completely different demographic and rumble is very small.

Close to no competition