The returns from that sovereign wealth fund are already included in the GDP figures.

> The returns from that sovereign wealth fund are already included in the GDP figures.

No, they aren’t (except that the production that produces them is, for domestic investments), because investment returns aren’t finished goods and services, and GDP is the aggregate value of finished goods and services produced. Counting investment returns on top of that would be double counting for domestic investment, and counting something completely outside for foreign investments.

Sorry, I should have been more clear. By returns I mean the impact on the economy from extracting money from the oil fund which first did in 2016. Essentially the fund had zero impact to their economy before 2016.

There’s significant debate around how much money should be taken from the fund to subsidize government services, but simply having money in an account they aren’t accessing doesn’t change the day to day finances.

Being the national equivalent of independently wealthy does sort of change the sort of risks you're able to take, even without actually dipping into the fund. I don't think GDP captures this fact at all.

I could see that for large R&D projects or something, but I have trouble seeing how that’s related to the penal system.

Recidivism data really lags spending. Remember they need to have left prison 3+ years ago or you don’t know if they will go back in that time period and to have some effect you’re really talking about money allocated 5+ years ago.