I expect new hardware in 2023, not because of how powerful the current chipset is or is not, but because Nintendo is very likely losing a massive percentage of sales to emulators now.

How many units would the game have sold if Yuzu/Ryujinx didn’t exist? It’s even more jarring when you’re a paying consumer running the game at 720p20 and someone else can quite easily download switch games for “free” and play a much better 4K60 unofficial PC version.

Those videos are all over YouTube and have been for a couple of years now. I’d always assumed Nintendo was just trying to get TOTK out the door, give it time to sell, then announce the new system with a new Mario later in the year.

Emulators are for a very small niche audience of players, most of whom simply wouldn't buy the Switch.

Also, their own quarterly reports and expectations confirm they aren't launching new hardware anytime soon.