> I don't think the political situation has changed that much since 1949

China is in much better of a position both economically and militarily to invade Taiwan today than it was in 1992, 1971, and 1949.

China has the second largest economy with the second largest military budget.

The world is definitely a lot different than it was 50 years ago.

Taking an island 100 miles offshore is definitely doable

Sure, I was being a bit flippant. The world is different in many ways, including more interdependence between Chinese and Taiwanese economies. Without getting too deep into it, the issue mostly comes down to whether the US decides to intervene.

Everybody suffers massively if there's hot war in the strait. The main point is that unless supply chains are unwound from both countries, it doesn't matter that much where you put a new screen factory.

Of course it matters… It’s completely absurd to think it doesn’t matter …or are you being flippant again. I don’t have time to burn so say what you mean. If you really don’t understand, I can explain the obvious advantages to not placing a factory in a potential war zone.

Then there’s the other danger…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-destroy-taiwans-semiconduc...

The US could not intervene other than destroying all the semiconductor factories.

I'm not being flippant, and I think my meaning is clear. You're avoiding the original point, which is that if the majority of your factories are already in a potential war zone, the risk calculation doesn't change by adding another. What do you think happens to Honhai's Chinese facilities during this hypothetical invasion?

Arguing over US strategic ambiguity is probably too off topic for this thread. I live in Taiwan, so I guess I've put my money where my mouth is.

All? The problem is being addressed. TSMC is building a second factory in the US, for example.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/06/tsmc-to-up-arizona-investmen...

“Since the beginning of the 2020s, TSMC has expanded its operations outside of the island of Taiwan, opening new fabs in Japan and the United States, with further plans for expansion into Germany”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#:~:text=Four%20200%20mm%2...

More fabs coming to the US too:

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-us-fabs-everything-we-...

Now, would building the only plant that makes your displays in a potential war zone increase your risk? Common sense is all you need to answer the question.

majority != all, and my argument is based on the idea that:

(1) Invasion is very unlikely

(2) If there is an invasion, it's very likely that the US and Japan have something to say about it.

Anyway, I wonder if there's other reasons for it to be in Taiwan. The article isn't very substantive, but it links to another one that says:

"European company ams OSRAM will be the primary supplier of microLED chips for Apple, but there is potential for Taiwanese suppliers like Epistar to become additional suppliers of microLED chips by 2026-2027..."

Maybe there are some partnerships aside from TSMC that are driving the decision. The article says the process will be developed in Longtan (Taoyuan), which happens to be where at least one other company is setting up microLED production:

https://www.microled-info.com/tags/auo

“ (1) Invasion is very unlikely”

Says some person on the Internet.

“(2)...”

But if that person is wrong, they believe…

Remember when Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons because it thought they would be protected?

https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/1082124528/ukraine-russia-put...

Ukraine had the third largest nuclear weapons arsenal. Now they are fighting for survival.

What the US, and how much the US, will do, with respect to Taiwan depends on politicians in Washington D.C., public sentiment, etc. and that changes over time.

Naval landings are never easy. Suicidal if you don't have complete air dominance. In World War 2 the Nazis were able to conquer all of western Europe in weeks, but were completely stopped by the mere 50 miles of English Channel. And this was in the days before Radar was well understood and deployed and before guided cruise missiles were a thing.

There is only one scenario where the invasion of Taiwan isn't a long and drawn out affair that costs the Chinese hundreds of thousands to millions of troops, and that's the one where they start off by nuking it flat in a massive surprise attack and end up winning only a radioactive wasteland for their troubles.