> Complex software will require human coding. But most programmers are in denial about how complex the code they’re writing actually is.

I think it's just a matter of time till all software becomes complex, e.g a codebase worked on by a few dozens people for 10 years will have a non trivial level of complexity. Not disagreeing or anything, the machines might be able to do this well, we'll see. It will have to improve by a lot, like almost no hallucinations. But there could be many shades in between. Instead of completely replacing developers in 5 years which I personally find unlikely, it can replace 50% of them.