for social collapse, 'Pew Research' has conducted stellar surveys. I'd start there. Another solid metric is low-income refugees. If a measurable number of low-income minorities start leaving India for countries of slightly higher average income (eg: Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia), then it's either a sign of collapse or religious authoritarianism. Differential rights is another sign. say for instance, if there exist specific laws that only Indian minorities have to follow nation-wide.
As for press freedoms, every political opposition party should get to have their own newspaper that can be freely shared on social media. ie. exception to exclude any party that actively seeks independence from India. Private universities should be allowed to teach anything that is constitutional, ie: don't teach violent fundamentalism or birth based bigotry. I should be able to call Modi any non-caste-based slur (Fascist, Bigot, Loser, etc.) on social media without getting a case thrown against me or violent assaulted on the streets. The front page of the Caravan or Scroll.in (online subscription based news media, subscription so I know they will be alive unlike ad reliant ones) should still contain a scathing accusation towards the BJP as it always has.
For economics, poverty and safety, the numbers should be easier to obtain. Proxy metrics like electricity availability, internet availability, infrastructure building and use rate, etc. are also great.
Those are my metrics on 3 fronts.
Execution style hit jobs on rivals? When did these happen? Are you simply making up executions in your mind?
Claiming India will collapse in 10 years is one of the weirdest statements I've heard in a long time. Which countries will not collapse according to your standards then? I'm honestly asking - no major country seems to be surviving the next 10 years as per your worldview.
I'm open to debate, but you seem to be inventing executions in thin air.
Sources: https://ncrb.gov.in/en/crime-in-india-2019 https://indianexpress.com/article/india/117-lynching-inciden... "ADL Report: At Least 50 White Supremacist Murders in 2018" by the Anti-Defamation League: https://www.adl.org/news/press-releases/adl-report-at-least-... "What We Know: The Far-Right and Extremism in 2019" by the Anti-Defamation League: https://www.adl.org/resources/reports/what-we-know-the-far-r...
You haven't heard of Uttar Pradesh?
They're not carrying hitjobs on rivals or opponents - they're eliminating gang leaders and major criminals. The judiciary is either afraid of giving these gangsters actual sentences, or have been bribed by the gangsters. To solve this, the police has effectively taken the execution of justice into their own hand.
I know it may sound absurd, and the idea of the police taking matters into their own hands would normally scare me, but Uttar Pradesh seems to be an exception. The rule of law has broken down so completely it needs the law to be broken to be brought back, if that makes any sense to you.
The gangsters that were killed were a bit like the mafia in that sense - everyone knew they were crooks, and everyone knew what they did. It seems the tipping point for the ruling party to execute (or 'encounter', as it is called in India) these gangsters is when they kill policemen. Since the judiciary will not punish them, it becomes necessary for the police to inculcate a fear of the police in gangsters' minds in order for their policing activities to actually be effective.
Except that some of them were rival politicians. I'd also want you to look at the number of criminals elected into power before you tell us that "but those killed were criminals, so it's okay." It's systemic rot. Due process doesnt exist in some places and mobs rule.
You see the issue I have with people like you on forums is that you depend on westerners not knowing the details of these things in your country. Your messages appear referenced etc showing that you took time to make those answers, but you seem to miss key points, selectively.
Unfortunately, I did not do my due diligence and visit each link - the links seemed to be authentic, and I went along with it. ChatGPT gave me the number 41 and the links that I have mentioned above.
Now that you have pointed it out, I tried visiting those links and the pages seem to not exist. I also put them in the Wayback Machine, which says it hasn't archived them.
That's why you'll notice the statistics are for 2019 - the pandemic is not yet part of the equation and I expected ChatGPT to have information for 2019.
I fear ChatGPT may have 'hallucinated' the data and the links. I can't seem to find a reliable source for the 41 lynchings. As such, my comment above stands moot, and I hope it is ignored - I can't seem to find the delete option.
I do sincerely apologize. It was not my intention to spread misinformation. I didn't do my due diligence, and now know better.
Hilarious.
New Delhi is declining into fascism, though there remains a strong democratic culture in the south. Historically, that creates a short-term bump before decline. So if India hasn’t collapsed in ~5 years, it’s unlikely to collapse for ~25 more. (Unless it goes militaristic nationalist, in which case all bets are off.)
I would also have you take a hard look at the fascist speeches of sitting ministers advocating for violence in India. All of these are documented and the perpetrators and sponsors of this are in government without consequence.
To make matters worse, the administration seems to be gnawing at some independence the supreme court shows by wanting to take over the appointments of Judges. It even gives judges plum positions post retirement for favorable judgements. Need I say more?
Without a course correction, I'll give it 10 years.