I see this argument all the time and it perplexes me. A thing so huge to rival the wheel, the control of fire, etc, and yet people say that we might not be sure when it's here. If it is AGI it will change the world in dramatic ways, you will not spend time arguing that we rolled things on top of logs before we had the wheel. The freaking war chariot is charging your ranks, taking your home and your family in slavery, there is no room for doubt about the impact.