News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Nate Silver: Some personal news by PaulDavisThe1st on Tuesday May 02, 2023 @07:22PM (#35795567)
> Millions of voters aren’t reading 538

True. But millions of them will hear a radio announcer, or TV person, or tiktok video or whatever else say something like "In the latest polling, <X> has pulled ahead of <Y> ..." where "the latest polls" will mean (among other things) 538.

I do believe that this has some effect (if small) on patterns of voting (particular by encouraging or discouraging turnout).

Re:Nate Silver: Some personal news by parasubvert on Tuesday May 02, 2023 @07:47PM (#35795841)
Generally speaking, you don’t hear this because 538 is not a poll, it’s a political analysis brand and competitor (ABC news). Most news orgs or journalists quote the polls themselves.
Re:Nate Silver: Some personal news by dragonwriter on Tuesday May 02, 2023 @07:53PM (#35795897)
> where "the latest polls" will mean (among other things) 538.

No, it won’t; 538 doesn’t produce polls.

Re:Nate Silver: Some personal news by PaulDavisThe1st on Tuesday May 02, 2023 @09:47PM (#35796722)
I've heard numerous news organizations/corporations cite 538 as the source of their analysis.
Re:Nate Silver: Some personal news by dllthomas on Tuesday May 02, 2023 @10:07PM (#35796868)
538 does produce analysis. They do not produce polls - they consume polls.
Re:Nate Silver: Some personal news by PaulDavisThe1st on Tuesday May 02, 2023 @10:35PM (#35797061)
None of which matters to people who hear "analysis of the electoral race" on some media.
Re:Nate Silver: Some personal news by dllthomas on Wednesday May 03, 2023 @01:36AM (#35798409)
I don't think dragonwriter was weighing in on your broader point, but being a little pedantic (and a lot correct) about what work is done by what people in our electoral coverage.
Re:Nate Silver: Some personal news by dougmwne on Tuesday May 02, 2023 @07:53PM (#35795899)
And that will happen no matter what. Polls and prognostications will always exist and probably have always existed back to the first tribal chieftain election. It’s just that instead of getting totally inaccurate predictions that only serve a narrative, for a little while a few of us knew how to get a more unbiased prediction. Now even fewer people will know anything aside from their favorite outlet’s media bubble.