Most wealthy individuals would take a haircut if corporate holdings were worth less. It mostly has the same effect.
It's not like Bill Gates has all of his wealth in cash.
Yes and no. The Fed has a not-so-subtle goal of taming inflation in part by capping asset prices with its interest rate hikes.
Correction, inflation is either from excess demand or constrained supply - the reasons for inflation matter when trying to address the problem.
Inflation is always about the balance between supply and demand
> the reasons for inflation matter when trying to address the problem
Less than one might think based on the either or thinking. Even when a change in supply causes inflation, reducing the demand side will bring it back down.
The exception being for specific items where demand is not very elastic in the short term, such as fuel or basic food items.
But even increasing interest rates (a demand side intervention) may not affect those prices by much, it will affect other prices enough that aggregate demand can stay low.
And like most economic theories it’s very hard to (in)validate in the real world.
- The nominal quantity of money ("print trillions of dollars")
- Aggregate demand ("buy everything in the world")
- The velocity of money ("give each resident a million dollars a month")
Increases in the quantity * velocity of money drive inflation in the long run: prices do not equilibrate immediately but have to be dragged up (or not, as the case may be) by supply and demand.
If many people believe printing trillions of dollars doesn’t matter, then I’d like to hear why. I’d like to not have taxes…
It also needs money to do weird, dark magic with bank balance sheets so that businesses can continue to acquire the capital to maintain and grow the supply of goods and services. It’s less clear what extra money sloshing around the financial system does. In the post-2008 era, people were freaking out about it not doing enough.
I think people think printing money causes inflation, and in general “know” that you shouldn’t “spend more than you make”… but I think things are different when you can print money.
It would actually be a very efficient means of fund raising (vs the current tax code), as well as fighting income inequality (the basic income), and even if it did cause inflation, that’s basically just a very efficient progressive wealth tax (when coupled with a universal basic income).
Imagine if the Fed just printed up 10 million dollars for everyone tomorrow. Do you think everyone would then be wealthy?
A side effect of that position is decreased sensitivity (aka inflation) of that currency to money printing.
Because you're effectively amortizing each new dollar's dilution of value against {everything the US uses dollars for} + {everything the world uses dollars for}. Which is a much larger denominator than national-only currencies.
(And side note that being a trade currency is somewhat of a Faustian bargain, because it carries an expectation/obligation that you will create sufficient amounts of your currency to facilitate international trade)
If the US keeps using the dollar as a fast pass to imposing unilateral sanctions internationally, and de-dollarization expands, there will be a very different level of correlation between monetary policy and dollar inflation.
And personally I think the last 15 years have done a pretty good job as a counterpoint to that school. The whole QE regime was chugging along without generating a large amount of inflation and then we had both the supply and demand numbers go bonkers. Then inflation.
I think this period will be studied for years (though because it’s economics I doubt there will be much decided).
In terms of policy making, the independent central banks of many countries (e.g. BoE) have been mandated to follow this model pretty closely - when inflation (a primary metric against which they are judged) rises (like now), interest rate increases and 'QT' are the response.
I'd prefer to see fiscal policy being used more - then the expansion/contraction of the money supply can be better directed for social good, and interest rates can remain nearer their 'natural' level in terms of correct pricing of time/risk.
Of course with a growing economy this makes no sense, as you need more money to facilitate this growing exchange of goods and services, and so the gold standard is inherently deflationary (see also Bitcoin).
(Fiat) Money of course is just a signalling mechanism, it is not 'real' - money supply / velocity / inflation are concepts for understanding the mechanism, not much politics or philosophy involved.
True that the rich will tend to save money thrown at them, but they also tend to sink it into assets (like property) hence the 'everything bubble'. As you point out, wealth taxes won't move the needle on the price of bread, but may help reduce the costs of housing.
At the whole economy level, I'd suggest that supply and demand don't really cause inflation - at least, not the kind of disfunctional inflation that we should guard agains. For example, if the supply of bread is reduced, then necessarily people will eat less bread (and price signalling will ensure that it is the poor that eat less bread). So long as this does not trigger e.g. a wage price spiral or other pathological effect, then this is 'fine'.
Raising taxes on high-income people could help if it goes far enough that we actually reduce our consumption. High income people have low marginal propensity to consume - that’s why it’s better to give regular people money when you want stimulus. Tax hikes targeted at the very high income would have to be very steep, or they’d just be absorbed by lower savings rates.
As long as we’re entertaining weird taxes, progressive consumption tax is probably what you want here. Special sales taxes on big ticket luxury items (cars, boats, watches, etc) could do the same thing a little less elegantly but in a more familiar wish.