This reminds me of the joke "Fusion is 30 years away and always will be".
The reason is that a panel of scientist predicted various timelines of viable fusion between 30 years and infinity years based on effective funding. Ever since the funding for nuclear research was significantly below the level of the infinity years[0].
I suspect nuclear fission followed a similar path in the last decades.
[0] https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-f...
It hasn't, and it's not a "well-documented issue". What's documented is decades of FUD, fear-mongering, underinvestment etc.
> If decarbonization is the goal, projects like Flamanville are already a failure
Why not look at projects like Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant instead?
> will take decades and decades to make up for the construction time
Ho long will it take to overbuild renewables and all the required power storage for them?
E.g. right now, during the day, Germany's renewables are generating:
- wind: 20% of installed capacity
- solar: 34% of installed capacity
- pumped hydro storage: sucking up 8% of total power generation for recharging
> Germany was over 50% coal 20 years ago, it would still be at this level if it had gone that route.
Which route? E.g. France's carbon output from electricity generation is ~56g/kWh. Germany's is ~340g/kWh. Care to guess why?
> Why not look at projects like Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant instead
Because the person I replied to talked about Flamanville... Do you even read what is discussed or just frantically go from one post to the other?
I also posted how long it took to reach 50% renewables - 20 years, during which time the EDF/Areva failed to complete almost all of the projects they were involved with. If Germany had gone that route it would still be pumping out 800g/kWh like Poland does and it would be doing that for the last 20 years. Thank God it didn't make that mistake.
I'll repeat again. Nuclear power projects in France took 20 years and were not completed because of underinvestment; about 10% of what the Germans paid for the Energiewende. If the French invested 10x more money, the industry could have been rebuilt. Instead they just perfuse enough to keep it half-alive.
You don't have to repeat anything, I heard you the first time. Flamanville cost a 1/10 of the Energiewende and its output is 0. Its theoretical output is 1/25 of the actual output of German renewables. That's not a good deal. If the goal is to decarbonize, Flamanville is already a failure, for reasons I already posted.
(I'm copying your rhetoric in case you don't notice)
Thank you
Nuclear has failed to scale, it's a well documented issue. If we want to decarbonize quickly, I cannot imagine how it can make sense to invest a 1/10 for a 1/25 of the production, and then wait decades longer for it. If decarbonization is the goal, projects like Flamanville are already a failure: even if finished it will take decades and decades to make up for the construction time during which it did not produce a single kWh and did not displace a single molecule of co2. Germany was over 50% coal 20 years ago, it would still be at this level if it had gone that route. It can't be the solution now.